The glory of Barack Obama is that there are so many different kinds of us who can claim a piece of that “our.” African-Americans, Democrats, post-boomers, progressives, people who rose from essentially nowhere and through hard work and determination succeeded beyond their parents’ wildest dreams are the most obvious.

　　But there are also people who respect intelligence and good grammar. People who see their spouse as their “best friend,” as Barack called Michelle on Tuesday night.People whose children have the same knowing look as Sasha and Malia, who are probably more excited about their puppy than about their father’s presidency.

　　Thursday, Nov. 06, 2008

　　The Rising Threat of Deflation

　　By Bill Powell

　　Of all the financial challenges the next Administration may face, perhaps the most dangerous — and least appreciated — is deflation. The stunning decline in the price of oil gets the business headlines — and has a good-news feel as it helps cash-strapped American consumers the most — but the cost of an entire range of commodities has also plunged in the past quarter: copper, gold, nickel and steel have all fallen as global demand has weakened. One popular gauge of commodity prices, the Reuters CRB Index, tumbled 22.3% in October, the biggest drop in the index's 48-year history. (See pictures of the global financial crisis.)

　　With the economy in the U.S. "contracting significantly" in the fourth quarter, as San Francisco Fed president Janet Yellen recently put it, an issue that was practically unthinkable three months ago is now, for the Fed, front and center: the possibility of the U.S. entering a phase of deflation, or protracted declines in the general price level. In its statement accompanying the most recent interest-rate cut, the Fed said, "In light of the declines in the prices of energy and other commodities and weaker prospects for economic activity, [the Fed] expects inflation to moderate."

　　That's the optimistic view — and, for now, the dominant view of the Fed, most economists believe. But lurking not far from the surface of economic policymakers' deliberations these days is the dreaded d word: deflation. "Sure, we're very cognizant of it," one source familiar with Fed's thinking on the matter told TIME this week. "We don't think we're there yet, but we're very aware of the possibility." So is Wall Street. At Merrill Lynch, chief investment strategist Richard Bernstein issued a report within hours of Barack Obama's election, listing three developments for investors to monitor closely: fiscal stimulus, taxes and deflation. (See pictures of TIME's Wall Street covers.)

　　Much of today's deflation anxiety results from keen awareness of the Japanese experience of the 1990s. Indeed, New York Federal Reserve governor and vice chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee Timothy Geithner was Treasury attaché in the Tokyo embassy for the first half of that decade. That's when a widespread banking crisis led to a credit crunch, an economic slump and eventually interest rates that were lowered to zero by the Bank of Japan. Even so, Japan's banks, which were in the process of repairing their balance sheets, were extremely reluctant to lend. Thus, even though interest rates were low, the economy weakened. Prices for pretty much everything declined, following a bust in the real-estate and stock markets in Japan. The country entered a decade of stagnation. (See pictures of the Top 10 scared traders.)

　　Some economists — for now a minority, to be sure — believe the U.S. is at serious risk of a deflationary spiral, even if just a quarter ago, inflation was above the Fed's comfort zone of 2% to 3%. "Compared to Japan's problem a decade ago, this crisis is unfolding much faster and spreading wider due to financial globalization," says Shanghai-based independent economist Andy Xie. A financial system unable or unwilling to lend, a tapped out U.S. consumer, and business now retrenching — and laying people off — all are a formula for possible deflation. What's so wrong with declining prices? For one thing, it makes the real cost of paying off debt that much higher — and for American consumers in hock to the tune of $14 trillion, anything that makes that debt burden more onerous is anything but helpful. (Read "10 Things to Do With Your Money Right Now.")

　　The good news is that in the U.S. now, as Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist for Morgan Stanley, writes, "The ultimate bastion of defense against deflation is a Fed committed to avoid it at all costs." And that's what we have. Study of the Japanese experience became something of a cottage industry for Fed researchers over the past eight years, and the Fed has responded accordingly: lending directly to banks, backstopping the commercial-paper market (which companies use to raise short-term money), trying to bring yields on both long- and short-term maturities down. Further, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke went out of his way recently not to object to the possibility of further fiscal stimulus from Congress. In other words, the Fed is throwing everything but the kitchen sink at avoiding a deflationary spiral, and it's doing so more quickly than its counterparts in Tokyo did a decade ago. Disinflation — diminishing inflationary pressure across the board — is healthy for the U.S. economy. Deflation is something the U.S. doesn't want to see. And the Fed knows that better than anyone.

　日志原文：http://sydlq58839.blog.sohu.com/103797966.html
　　全体农民愤怒声讨郎咸平

　　--对郎咸平教授关于“中国的经济学家连农民都不如”的强烈抗议


　　郎咸平教授在抨击内地经济学家时曾有言：“中国的经济学家连农民都不如”。郎教授的这句话挖苦的是中国（内地）的经济学家，参照的对象却是我们广大农民，以一个主体作参照贬损另一个主体，其前提是认为我们被参照着的身份低贱并利用之来贬低内地的经济学家，这种表达方式本身对所参照主体（农民）就带有明显的蔑视色彩，比如“连猪狗都不如”、“连三岁的孩子都不如”，其中的“猪狗”、“三岁的孩子”都是带有极强蔑视、不屑语义的参照项。尤其是把我们与“中国的经济学家”放到一起，更是严重贬低了中国农民声誉和形象、严重丑化了中国农民，对此我们表示强烈抗议，并予以愤怒声讨。说我们农民没文化、自私、目光短浅、不懂政治，我们都没有异议，我们都能接受，我们也不觉得自卑；但把我们农民兄弟和中国（内地）的经济学家放在一起，这是对我们农民兄弟极大侮辱，我们绝对不能允许，今特授权律师提出抗议。

　　第一、中国的经济走到今天的处境，请问哪一步不是内地的经济学家出谋划策、激昂论证的结果？请问他们的哪一次参与是免费服务的？把国家忽悠到今天这地步并捞得满钵满盂好处的就是这批人。滥竽充数、自以为是、误国误民与诈骗犯罪孰轻孰重？请问郎教授，这些为银子而丢人现眼、投利益集团之所好、出卖国家和全民利益的的事情我们哪一个农民兄弟参与了？你把我们与这些人放在一起品评，受损失的是这些寡廉鲜耻的经济学家还是我们淳朴的农民兄弟？

　　第二、我们巨额的国有资产被少部分人以改革的名义装进了私人腰包，而为这些所谓的“改革行为”摇唇鼓舌、出谋划策的都是这些经济学家，他们像走马灯似的在里面穿梭，满面春风的从中分银子，请问郎教授，你看到我们农民兄弟从中捞取过一分钱的不义之财了吗？

　　第三、中国的经济学家忙不迭的为国资委、国企当高参、当独董、当监事，获取巨额报酬，所说的话连他们自己都不信，只见他们自己、子女、亲属名下的财产数额翻了多少倍（有几个有良心的诸如敬链吴、于轼茅的也快被掐死了），请问郎教授，你看见我们哪位农民兄弟如此卑鄙、如此下作了？

　　第四、我们农民付出的是劳动，出卖的是体力，凛然天地间，从来不出卖人格和灵魂，请看你的那些同行，他们不但出卖国家利益，出卖公众利益(既出卖他们所具有的，也出卖他们所没有的)，还把灵魂出卖（良知本来就没有）；他们不但出卖灵魂、出卖本来就已很廉价的人格，他们甚至还向政府官员、国企老板出售文凭，从而换取更多的脏银；请问郎教授，我们农民兄弟有你的同行这样卑鄙和无耻吗？

　　第五、我们农民在今日的社会中确实没有什么位置，连我们赖以生存、养家糊口的土地也被抢得差不多了，我们现在很贫穷、医疗无保险、养老无保障、甚至无钱支付子女上学的费用，但是我们农民从不干那些遭人诟骂、出卖国家和人民利益的事情。有的农民兄弟的土地被抢走了，无以为生，甚至靠妻子女儿出卖肉体养老、养小（还被打劫一部分出去供养执法机关），但是我们的钱比那些经济学家分来的钱干净得多！郎教授你凭什么把这些经济学家和我们拉在一起进行对比？！

　　第五，我们没有文化、我们不懂政治，但是我们比那些读了书却没有良知、毫无社会责任、不知羞耻的文化大师们纯洁的得多、善良的多；因为我们从来不做为了骗钱而谄媚权贵、巴结权势的事情。我们不懂政治，但我们从不说假话、从不蒙人骗人（有些农家孩子走上了犯罪道路那也是离开农村受到外面花花世界诱惑和教唆的结果），比那些满口政治口号却又毫无社会责任、只关心自己小圈子利益、只关心一己的地位和待遇、只为子女兜里捞票子的所谓“政治家”纯洁的多。我们是共和国真正的缔造者，共和国的江山就是无数的中国农民子女的血肉之躯筑成的；我们中国农民为共产党打天下的时候，你们这些所谓的狗屁经济学家还不知在你们哪一代先人的腿肚子里转筋呢，对我们评头品足、拿我们说三道四，你们配么？

　　有一伙忘恩负义的王八羔子，他们薄情寡义，利用了我们农民的善良和轻信，给我们许诺欺骗我们拼命打天下，随后又把我们一脚踢开，使我们沦落到今天的地步，竟成为你郎咸平之流斥骂经济学家的陪衬！但我们心中有数，不管怎样，我们跟定了共产党，坚信共产主义：只要党的领导不变，只要共产党的旗号不变，我们就有机会再一次的打土豪、分田地，就有机会夺回我们被掠夺走了的财产；前一次革命，“共”的是辛勤致富者的财产；下一次革命，我们要夺回我们被抢走、被以各种名义圈走的财产，我们肯定拼命战斗，我们依然是继续革命的先锋和闯将。郎教授，你的那些同仁有如此之政治抱负吗？他们对党有这样的坚强信念吗？

　　高官厚禄者忘记了我们，利益集团抢劫着我们，村支书、基层官僚欺压着我们，我们都把仇恨记在了心里，我们学会了忍受，我们选择默默地观望和等待；可今天你这学贯东西、深受西方文明熏染的郎教授出此谰言我们无法忍受，我们在此愤怒声讨你郎咸平，并要你郎咸平向广大农民道歉！不许你再蔑视和侮辱中国农民！中国农民永远比你们那些要钱不要脸的经济学家、那些没有历史责任感的政治家、那些没有品味的文化大师干净的多、文明的多！如果再惹我们发火或拒不向广大农民兄弟道歉，我们一定要用锄头砍掉你的狗头顺手挖个深坑把你埋了！在埋葬压榨广大农民的世道之前先埋了你！我们说到做到！

　　鼠年十冬腊月

　华尔街股指继续下跌，

　　大家都想去美国抄底？

　　Stocks slumped for a second straight session Thursday, bringing the Dow's losses to 929 points since Election Day, as fears of a prolonged recession sent investors running for the exits.

　　The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost around 443 points, or 4.9%. The two-session decline of 929 points, or 9.7%, marked the biggest two-session point loss ever and the biggest two-session percentage decline in 21 years, according to Dow Jones.

　　The Standard & Poor's 500 (SPX) index lost 5% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) declined by 4.3%.

　　The Dow slumped 486 points Wednesday as President-elect Barack Obama's historic victory gave way to worries about the economy he inherits. Those same worries continued to drag on stocks Thursday.

　　"Everything is so dismal right now, It's just an endless flow of bad news and no one wants to buy," said Dave Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams.

　　Rovelli said that the steady stream of bad economic reports and weak corporate earnings and forecasts was taking its toll. In particular, the number of companies announcing layoffs was unnerving investors, especially ahead of Friday's big monthly jobs report.

　　October retail sales from the nation's chain stores were mostly abysmal, with some discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores escaping the fray. The housing market collapse, credit crunch and strained labor market have all taken their toll on consumers' wallets. Even the recent retreat in oil and gas prices has not had much of a positive impact on consumer spending.

　　"People are realizing that the recession is going to drag on until at least the end of 2009," said Rovelli.

　　Bear market: Stocks, as represented by the S&P 500, shot up 18% in the seven trading sessions through Election Day, bouncing off a 35% slump in the six weeks before. Since Tuesday, the S&P 500 has lost at least 8% of that.

　　The zigzagging reflects the volatility that has been present for months, but also an attempt at finding a bear market bottom. After such a run, analysts say Wall Street was vulnerable to a pullback.

　　"I think we're in a bottoming process," said Mark Travis, president and CEO at Intrepid Capital Funds. "But it's not going to be a V-shaped bottom where it bounces and goes straight up."

　　He said that stocks will likely continue to seesaw through year-end, unless some of the traditionally favorable seasonal patterns kick in. Stocks aren't likely to move higher until at least the second quarter of next year, as investors start anticipating an economic recovery six or nine months out.

　　At the same time, investors put money into equity mutual funds for the first time in 14 weeks, according to tracking firm Trim Tabs. The amount of money invested by equity mutual funds in the week ended Nov. 6 totaled $4.4 billion versus the $9.2 billion withdrawn during the previous week.

　　Company news: Among stock movers, automakers were hit especially hard on continued worries about their ability to stay afloat without government help. General Motors (GM, Fortune 500), a Dow component, slumped 13.7%. Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) lost 5.3%.

　　On Wednesday, GM's North American president said that the industry is facing a critical 100-day period in which it needs to amp up its efforts to secure government support.

　　Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500) said late Wednesday that it has stopped hiring and that revenue for the current quarter won't meet forecasts. That overshadowed the company's better-than-expected earnings report. Shares fell 2.6% Thursday.

　　Las Vegas Sands (LVS) continued to plummet on worries that it may default on certain debt obligations and that it can't raise enough capital. The company operates the Venetian and Palazzo casinos and a pair of casinos in China.

　　Declines covered a variety of sectors, with all 30 Dow stocks falling, led by GM (GM, Fortune 500), Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), General Electric (GE, Fortune 500), Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) and Boeing (BA, Fortune 500).

　　Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, decliners topped advancers by more than four to one on volume of 1.53 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, losers beat winners by almost three to one on volume of 2.43 billion shares.

　　Retail sales: With the exception of discount chain Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500), most retailers saw October sales in line with the bruised economy. Thomson Reuters estimates the monthly sales could be the worst in eight years. (Full story)

　　Gap (GPS, Fortune 500) reported a 16% drop in sales at stores open a year or more, a retail industry metric known as same-store sales. Macy's (M, Fortune 500) same-store sales fell 6.3% and the company warned November sales would weaken.

　　AnnTaylor Stores (ANN) said same-store sales fell 19% from a year ago. The women's clothing retailer also said it was expanding its restructuring program and warned that third-quarter results won't meet forecasts. Shares fell 25.7%.

　　Signs of the recession were evident in economic reports released earlier this week. They included dour readings on manufacturing, factory orders and the services sector and the worst monthly auto sales in 25 years.

　　Jobs: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment last week topped forecasts.

　　The weekly number followed a pair of monthly reports Wednesday that showed the labor market continued to get hammered in October.

　　The reports were especially worrisome ahead of Friday's big government report. That report is expected to show that employers cut 200,000 jobs from their payrolls in October. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate, which is generated by a separate survey, is expected to rise to 6.3% from 6.1% the previous month.

　　Other markets: In global trade, Asian markets tumbled on recession fears. European markets also closed with big losses, after European and British central banks cut interest rates.

　　The dollar rallied against the euro and the pound after monetary policy makers in Europe cut interest rates in response to growing economic weakness. However, the greenback edged lower versus the Japanese yen.

　　COMEX gold for December delivery fell $10.20 to settle at $732.20 an ounce.

　　U.S. light crude oil for December delivery fell to a 19-month low, sinking $4.53 to settle at $60.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

　　Gasoline prices fell another 2.5 cents to a national average of $2.34 a gallon, according to a survey of credit-card activity released Thursday by motorist group AAA. The decline marks the 50th consecutive day that prices have decreased. During that same time period, prices dropped by $1.51 a gallon, or 39.2%.

　　Lending rates: The credit market continued to improve. The 3-month Libor fell to 2.39% from 2.51% Wednesday, a nearly four-year low, according to Bloomberg.com. Overnight Libor rose slightly to 0.33%, bouncing off an all-time low of 0.32% the previous day. Libor is a key interbank lending rate.

　　The yield on the 3-month Treasury bill, seen as the safest place to put money in the short term, fell to 0.30% from 0.39% Wednesday, with investors preferring to take a small return on their money than risk the stock market. Last month, the 3-month yield reached a 68-year low around 0% as investor panic peaked.
　　Treasury prices were little changed, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note at 3.70%.

　　奥巴马当选演讲全文

　　中国网 china.com.cn　

　　“美国是一个任何事情都有可能发生的国家，对于这一点如果还有任何人心存怀疑的话，今晚就是对这一问题的最好回答”

　　美国已经做出了回答。现在，就在芝加哥格兰特广场上聚集的125，000名支持者面前，我们的新总统诞生了。下面就是巴拉克-奥巴马所做的2008年总统候选人就职演讲全文：

　　美国是一个任何事情都有可能发生的国家，对于这一点如果还有任何人心存怀疑，对民主的力量还表示疑虑的话，今晚就是对这一问题的最好回答。

　　这个答案早已经印在了到处悬挂在学校和教堂的竞选条幅上，人们随处可见；这些人们已经等待了三四个小时，对于他们当中的大多数，这是有生以来第一次经历这样的过程，因为他们坚信这一时刻注定与众不同，而这种不同便有可能源自他们所发出的声音。

　　这个答案出自这些人之口，无论是青年还是老年，穷人还是富人，民主党还是共和党，黑人还是白人，拉丁裔、亚裔还是美国本土人，同性恋者还是异性恋者，残疾人还是非残疾人——他们向世界发出了这样的信息——我们从来不分红色之州和蓝色之州，我们永远都是美利坚合众国。

　　这个答案告诉了那些一直以来充满焦虑、恐惧和怀疑的人们，我们可以将双手放在历史的转折点上，将它再次带向充满希望的美好明天。

　　这一刻我们已经等待了太久，但是今晚，由于我们在这一决定性的时刻所作出的选择，美国便迎来了它崭新的一刻。

　　我刚刚接到了来自麦凯恩议员的电话。他在这场漫长而艰难的选举中一直努力着，而他为他所热爱的国家所付出的努力甚至更加艰辛而久远。可能我们当中的很多人甚至都无法想象，麦凯恩议员从何时便开始为我们的国家奉献自己，而我们却早已享受到了这位勇敢无私的领导者为国家所做出的贡献。对于他和佩林所付出的努力，我表示衷心的感谢，同时我也期待着，能够和他们一同努力，共同实现我们这几个月来所做出的承诺。

　　我要感谢我的竞选伙伴，新当选的美国副总统乔·拜登，这一路走来，他始终遵循着自己内心深处的那个声音，他始终代表着那些和他一起在斯克兰顿街边长大，一起坐着火车回到故乡特拉华州的人们的声音。

　　如果没有过去这16年来挚友的支持，没有稳定的家庭和对生活的爱，没有我们国家的下一位第一夫人，米歇尔·奥巴马，今晚我将不可能站在这里。萨莎和玛丽亚，我爱你们，你们已经得到了一只新的小狗，它将和我们一起入住白宫。还有我的祖母，虽然她已经不能和我们一起分享这一刻，但是我知道，她正和我的家人一起，注视着我，陪我经历着这一刻。我不会忘记，是他们养育我成人，今晚我是如此的想念他们，我知道，我所亏欠他们的，是永远无法报答的恩情。

　　对我的竞选负责人大卫?普罗菲，我的首席战略家大卫·亚克瑟罗德以及有史以来最优秀的竞选团队，我想对你们说的是——是你们成就了今天的一切，我将永远感激你们所付出的这一切。

　　但是，最重要的是，我将永远不会忘记，这个胜利是真正属于你们的！

　　我一直都不是最有希望的那个候选人，一开始的时候我们便没有那么多的资金或支持。我们的竞选之路并不是从华盛顿的高楼礼堂中开始的，它从德梅因的后院、协和酒店的客厅以及查尔斯顿的门廊中迈出了第一步。

　　它由那些需要从自己有限的存款中拿出5美元、10美元和20美元的工人们建立起来；那些摒弃了他们那一代人冷漠神话的年轻人，那些远离家乡亲人在外打拼却只能赚得微薄工资的人们，那些抵抗着刺骨的寒冷和灼人的炎热敲响了陌生人家大门的人们，是你们给了它成长的力量；数以百万计的美国人民自愿组织起来，他们想要去证明两个多世纪之后，一个由人民组成的政府，一个属于人民的政府，一个为了人民的政府是不会从地球上消亡的，这就是属于你们的胜利！

　　我知道，你们这样做并不只是想赢得一场选举，我也知道，你们这样做并不是为我一个人。你们这样做，是因为你们了解前方的任务是如何的艰巨。甚至就在我们庆祝的同时，我们也清楚地明白，明天将要面临的挑战是多么巨大——两大战争，一个处于危险中的星球，本世纪最严重的经济危机。就在我们站在这里的同时，我们清楚地知道，还有许多勇敢的美国人正在伊拉克的沙漠和阿富汗的群山中醒来，为了我们而冒着生命的危险。还有许许多多的父母们，只有在自己的孩子入睡后才能躺下，他们为房子的贷款和医院的账单还有孩子们的学费而发愁。放心，我们会注入新的能量，创造新的就业机会，建设新的学校，面对威胁与挑战，修复我们的联盟。

　　前方的道路还很漫长。我们所面临的山峰是险峻的。或许一年甚至很长一段时间我们都无法攀上峰顶，但是美国——我从来没有像今晚这样坚信，我们最终一定会到达。我向你保证——我们的民族最终会到达山顶的。

　　也许会有挫折坎坷，作为总统我所做出的决定和政策必定会遭到一些人的反对，而我们也知道政府不能够解决所有问题。但是我将会诚实地告诉你们我们所面对的挑战。我会耐心倾听你们的心声，尤其是在遇到分歧的时候。而最重要的是，我将会让你们加入到重建我们国家的队伍当中来，沿着美国这221年来一直所走的那条道路——一块块砖瓦，一双双手，一点点堆砌出我们的家园。

　　21个月之前的那个冬天所开始的，不会在这个秋天的夜晚结束。这个胜利本身并不是我们所要找寻的改变——这只是一个改变的机会。如果我们回到老路上，那么一切都不会得到改变。没有你们，这一切也不会得到改变。

　　那么，就让我们重新召唤起爱国主义、公仆之心以及国家责任的精神来，每个人都参与其中，一起努力，不单只是关心自身，而是互相照顾。让我们记住这场经济危机所教会我们的一点，如果主街道遭受了打击，那么华尔街也不可能幸免——在这个国家，我们作为一个民族，一个整体，同存亡共荣辱。

　　让我们摒弃掉那些长久以来一直危害我们的政治生活的那些幼稚琐碎的党派之争。让我们记住，是这个国家的人第一次将共和党的横幅挂在了白宫之上，而共和党的建立便是基于对自力更生、独立自由和国家统一价值的肯定。这一价值是我们所共享的，即便民主党今晚赢得了大选，我们也会怀着谦虚的心态，去消除这一分歧和隔膜。在面临着比今天更严重的国家分裂时，林肯说过，“我们不是敌人，而是朋友。。。我们友情的纽带，或会因情绪激动而绷紧，但决不可折断。”而对于那些我还没有赢得支持的选民们——也许我还没有赢得你们的选票，但是我听到了你们声音，我需要你们的帮助，而我也同样是你们的总统。

　　对于那些远在大洋彼岸的，在国会和皇宫中，在我们这个世界被遗忘的角落中围在收音机旁关注着大选之夜的人们——我们的故事是不同的，但是我们的命运却是紧紧连在一起的，美国领袖新的一天的黎明即将到来。对于那些会将世界四分五裂的人们，我们将打败你们，对于那些渴求和平和安全的人们，我们将支持你们。而对于所有那些想知道，自由女神像手中的火炬是否还会依旧闪耀光芒的人们，今晚我们再次证明了，我们民族的真正实力并不只是来自于武力和财富，而是来自于我们理想的力量：民主，自由，机遇以及永不屈服的希望。

　　美国真正的天赋在于，它懂得改变。我们的联盟会不断完善自己。而我们已经取得的成就给了我们希望，让我们坚信我们能够并且即将取得成功。

　　这次选举拥有许多故事和数不清的第一次，它们将被世世代代流传。但是今晚在我脑海中一直浮现的，是亚特兰大一位女性选民。她就像成千上万的其他选民一样，排在队伍中喊出自己的心声，唯一不同的是——安·尼克松·库伯已经106岁了。

　　她出生的时候正是奴隶制度解除之后；那时候还没有汽车和飞机；像她一样的人那个时候是没有选举权的，因为她是女人，还因为她皮肤的颜色。

　　但是今晚，我思考着她所经历的这一个世纪的美国——心痛和希望；斗争与进步；我们被告知我们不能做什么的时代，以及美国人的信条：是的，我们可以！

　　在那个女性不能发出声音的时代，在那个女性的希望被剥夺的时代，她看着她们站了起来，大声说出自己的想法，投出了自己的选票。是的，我们可以！

　　当绝望和大萧条袭来的时候，她看到了一个民族通过新政、新的工作和新的共同目的感战胜了恐惧。是的，我们可以！

　　当炸弹在珍珠港爆炸，当暴政威胁这个世界的时候，她见证了一代人的强大，见证了民主得到了捍卫。是的，我们可以！

　　她见证了蒙哥马利汽车暴动，见证了塞尔玛大桥事件，遇到了那位来自亚特兰大的牧师，他告诉人们“我们终将会克服一切。”是的，我们可以！

　　人类登上了月球，柏林墙倒塌了，世界由于我们自身的科学和想象力被连接到了一起。而在这一年，在这次选举中，她的手指触摸到了屏幕，她投出了自己的一票，因为在美国经历了106年的变迁，经历了最好的与最坏的时代后，她了解美国是如何变化的。是的，我们可以！

　　美国，我们已经走了这么远，我们已经看到了这么多，但是仍然有许多事情等待着我们去做。那么今晚，让我们扪心自问——如果我们的孩子看到了下一个世纪；如果我的女儿也能够和安·尼克松·库伯一样幸运地活到了106岁，那么他们将会看到怎样的变化？我们又将会取得什么样的进步？

　　对于我们来说，这正是一个对这一疑问给出回答的机会。这是我们的时刻，这是我们的时代——让我们的人民重新回去工作，为我们的孩子打开机会的大门；积累财富，促进和平；重拾美国梦，重申基本的真象——相对于大多数而言，我们是独一无二的；当我们呼吸时，我们希望，在我们面对讥笑、怀疑以及别人对我们说我们不能的时候，我们将会用凝聚了人类精神的永恒信条作出回应：

　　是的，我们可以！

　　谢谢你们，愿上帝保佑你们，愿上帝保佑美利坚合众国。(青云/编译)

　　

　　Atlantans thank Obama: 'We can become something great'

　　Story Highlights

　　African-Americans in Martin Luther King Jr.'s hometown say Obama shattered ceiling

　　Otis Sutton says Obama did for politics what Tiger Woods did for golf

　　Blacks no longer relegated to "shucking and jiving" to get ahead, barber says

　　Next Article in Politics ?
　　


　　ATLANTA, Georgia (CNN) -- The Rev. Martin Luther King is looking down on the United States, smiling, Otis Sutton said Wednesday.

　　

　　Otis Sutton, 78, recalls how times have changed since he grew up in the segregated South.

　　

　　1 of 3

　　


　　"That's what he wanted. He'd been preaching that all along," Sutton, 78, said of the nation electing its first African-American president.

　　Sutton, who has worked on and off at the historic Busy Bee Cafe in Atlanta, Georgia, since it opened in 1947, was baptized by the civil rights icon's father, King Sr. He remembers playing pick-up football games in a dirt lot with King Jr. when they were both youngsters in Atlanta.

　　Asked if King Jr. was any good at football, Sutton chuckled.

　　"He liked to read and study," he said with a reverence that prohibited him from disparaging King Jr. in any way, "but he loved the game."

　　Walk around Atlanta and you'll find plenty of African-Americans who hope Sen. Barack Obama will inspire young people to reach for a book rather than a football.

　　"As young, black Americans our society and our communities had told us that the only way we could make it out is if we entertain," said Cortez Tarver, 28, who cuts hair at the University Barber Shop, just down the street from the historically black Morehouse College and Clark Atlanta University. Hear Tarver talk about Obama's win ?
　　"They want us to be funny. They want us to cook their food, entertain them and play their sports -- and we do all that, we're just going to fit in."

　　The media reinforce the erroneous notion that successful black men exist only in the realms of hip hop, football and basketball, Tarver said.

　　The result is that fewer and fewer African-American children aspire to occupations like doctor and lawyer, he said.

　　All that changed after Obama locked up the Electoral College vote on Tuesday night.

　　"Now, they can say they want to be president," Tarver said of young blacks. "This shows us, hey, if we go to college, we study hard, we help out our communities, we can become president, we can become something great -- other than shucking and jiving, other than putting on a show."

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　　Amanpour: World welcomes Obama

　　Sutton likens Obama's rise through the political ranks to Tiger Woods' rise through professional golf. Until about 12 years ago, when Woods turned pro, it was rare to find black youngsters swinging club at their local links. Even if they had the natural skill, they did not believe the game belonged to them, he said.

　　"You never seen black children playing golf till [Woods] started playing," said Sutton, explaining that even his 7-year-old grandson, Josh, now enjoys playing golf.

　　What Woods did for golf, Sutton said, Obama has done for politics. Children across the nation were told Tuesday night that they, too, can aspire to the highest office in the land.

　　"If he can do it, they believe they can do it," Sutton said.

　　Back at University Barbershop, Tarver's colleague, Spot Jackson, 28, said the only thing keeping him awake was some Burger King coffee and a few doughnuts after staying up until 6 a.m. watching election news.

　　Like Tarver and Sutton, Jackson said he believes Obama shattered the ceiling for black men and women. He joked that Obama's victory made him want to start a foundation. Its mission would be simple, he said.

　　"We're going to eradicate the word 'can't.' We're going to try to get it out of every dictionary known to man," he said.

　　"There's nothing you can honestly say you can't do anymore; it just changes your perception as far as what you think is possible in this country."

　　Jackson dismissed a question about whether the change was made possible by Obama's skin color, saying it was more about the man's character and platform.

　　"He could've been green and if the message was the same and it resonated the same way it did, then he still would've gotten the same support," he said.

　　Jackson said he saw television footage of people in Indonesia celebrating the U.S. presidential election, something he's never seen in the 10 years he's been voting.

　　Morgan Blanchard, 20, a junior at Clark Atlanta, said she also was impressed to see international footage from Italy and Australia of people celebrating the election. It shows Obama has broad appeal, which speaks more to his honesty and principles than to his skin color, she said.

　　"Oh gosh, it's not even that he's African-American," she said, noting with a sly smile that Obama's mother was white. "It's the way he carries himself, the way he puts himself out there. I don't think race has anything to do with it."

　　Her sentiments were echoed by fellow Clark Atlanta student Ashante Smith, 18. A sophomore studying music, Smith said many African-Americans voted for Obama because of his race, but she pointed out that he also snared millions of votes in white and Latino communities.

　　"I think he was just really committed to all communities," she said.

　　And while she thinks Obama can help improve education, unemployment and the economy in general, she concurs with many who say he can hearten generations of African-Americans to reach higher in life.

　　"It just inspires me to go for what I want," she said. "It's like we can do anything."

　　

　　美国民主的真检验：OBAMA选上了美国总统

　　OBAMA: "CHANGE HAS COME TO AMERICA"

　　BREAKING NEWS

　　
　　Obama to be first African-American president

　　Sen. John McCain on Tuesday urged all Americans to join him in congratulating Sen. Barack Obama on his projected victory in the presidential election.

　　

　　Sen. John McCain congratulates Sen. Barack Obama on his projected victory.

　　

　　1 of 3

　　

　　more photos ?


　　"I pledge to him tonight to do all in my power to help him lead us through the many challenges we face," McCain said before his supporters in Phoenix, Arizona.

　　McCain's running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, was standing with him, but she did not speak.

　　With his projected win, Obama will become the nation's 44th president.

　　Obama will address the country from a rally in Chicago, Illinois, later Tuesday night.

　　The Illinois senator will become the first African-American to win the presidency.

　　Supporters in Chicago cheering, "Yes, we can" were met with cries of "Yes, we did."

　　Obama's former rival for the Democratic nomination, Sen. Hillary Clinton said in a statement that "we are celebrating an historic victory for the American people."

　　"This was a long and hard fought campaign but the result was well worth the wait. Together, under the leadership of President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, and a Democratic Congress, we will chart a better course to build a new economy and rebuild our leadership in the world."

　　The Illinois senator is projected to pick up a big win in Virginia, a state that hasn't voted for a Democratic president since 1964.

　　Obama also is projected to beat Sen. John McCain in Ohio, a battleground state that was considered a must-win for the Republican candidate. Watch more on Obama's Ohio win ?
　　Earlier in the evening, senior McCain aides were growing pessimistic about the Arizona senator's chances.

　　Going into the election, national polls showed Obama with an 8-point lead.

　　Election Night in America

　　

　　Watch history unfold with CNN and the best political team on television.

　　Tonight

　　Election Center ?
　　In addition to the presidential contest, voters were making choices in a number of key House and Senate races that could determine whether the Democrats strengthen their hold on Congress.

　　Former Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, will win a Senate seat in Virginia, CNN projects. He will replace retiring Republican Sen. John Warner.

　　Incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole, a Republican, is projected to lose her North Carolina seat to Democratic challenger Kay Hagan. Watch Dole concede defeat ?
　　Dole is the wife of 1996 Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole.

　　CNN also projects Democrats will win two other Senate seats currently held by Republicans. In New Hampshire, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen will win over incumbent John Sununu, and in New Mexico, Democrat Tom Udall will defeat Republican Steve Pearce.

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　　Obama in Chicago; 'I feel really good'

　　McCain heads west in final campaign swing

　　State-by-state polling

　　Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell held onto his seat in Kentucky.

　　Delaware voters re-elected Obama's running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, to his seventh term. iReport.com: Share your Election Day reaction with CNN
　　CNN's Ed Henry said there were lots of long faces in the lobby of the McCain headquarters at the Arizona Biltmore hotel as McCain allies watched returns showing Senate Republicans losing their seats. Watch what McCain says about the race ?
　　Voters expressed excitement and pride in their country after casting their ballots Tuesday in what has proved to be a historic election.

　　When the ballots are counted, the United States will have elected either its first African-American president or its oldest first-term president and first female vice president.

　　Poll workers reported high turnout across many parts of the country, and some voters waited hours to cast their ballots. Read about election problems
　　Reports of minor problems and delays in opening polls began surfacing early Tuesday, shortly after polls opened on the East Coast.

　　The presidential candidates both voted early in the day before heading out to the campaign trail one last time. Watch Obama family at polls ?
　　Tuesday also marked the end of the longest presidential campaign season in U.S. history -- 21 months -- and both candidates took the opportunity to make their final pitch to voters.

　　As McCain and Obama emerged from their parties' conventions, the race was essentially a toss-up, with McCain campaigning on his experience and Obama on the promise of change. But the race was altered by the financial crisis that hit Wall Street in September. Watch how this election is history in the making ?
　　Although most of the attention has been focused on the presidential race, the outcome of congressional elections across the country will determine whether the Democrats increase their clout on Capitol Hill.

　　Few predict that the Democrats are in danger of losing their control of either the House or the Senate, but all eyes will be on nearly a dozen close Senate races that are key to whether the Democrats get 60 seats in the Senate.

　　With 60 votes, Democrats could end any Republican filibusters or other legislative moves to block legislation.

　　Many political observers also predict that the Democrats could expand their majority in the House.

　　Voters will also weigh in on a number of ballot initiatives across the country, many of them focused on social issues like abortion and affirmative action. Check out the hot-button issues on the ballot

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　　All About U.S. Presidential Election ? Elections and Voting
　　

　　季羡林向温总理求助换秘书 曾遭秘书虐待？(图)

　　2008年11月05日09:38 [我来说两句] [字号：大 中 小]

　　
　　来源：中国新闻网

　　

　　

　　季羡林先生

　　国学大师季羡林的部分个人藏品，从去年以来开始流向拍卖市场。季羡林的好友与其会面后得知，他从没委托任何人拍卖藏品，其秘书杨锐因此被指有盗卖嫌疑。据称，季羡林今年曾写信向温家宝总理求助要求更换秘书。香港《文汇报》获悉，11月3日，杨锐被正式更换，新任秘书也于同一天由北大一位副书记带到北京301医院与季羡林见面。

　　藏品被卖季老不知情

　　据报道，季羡林的老友、新华社记者唐师曾和收藏家张衡近日披露，季羡林收藏的数十幅名人字画，从去年开始，分批流向拍卖市场。

　　

　　之后，唐、张两人先后到医院探望季羡林后，才得知这些字画是在季羡林毫不知情的情况下被盗卖的。季羡林强调：“我并不需要钱，也从没委托任何人拍卖我收藏的字画和其他物品”。

　　此后，张衡多次跟北大联系，反映季羡林藏品被盗卖一事，未得到明确回复。

　　“丢画”矛头指向秘书

　　据张衡介绍，季羡林原来的秘书叫李玉洁，跟随季老已53年，两年前81岁的李玉洁突发脑溢血住院，主要工作就交给了现任秘书、北大党委副书记吴志攀之妻杨锐。

　　媒体报道，藏品事件曝光后，涉嫌盗卖藏品的矛头指向杨锐，因为杨是掌管季羡林内外事务的“大总管”，又握有季羡林住宅的钥匙。

　　上书总理请求换秘书

　　张衡3日证实说，今年10月开始，季羡林曾多次向北大负责人表示，“像我这样什么实际工作都没有的人，有一个所谓秘书是多此一举，建议取消”。但同时他又写信向温家宝求助，称自己现在需要一位助手。“山东大学蔡德贵同志是我多年的老友，他最适合担任这个工作。”张衡说，他得知温总理在10月12日前后批转了季老的信件给北大，但是北大直到11月3日才对老人的这一要求作出回应。

　　友人报案求查清事实

　　不过对于北大更换季羡林秘书的举动，张衡表示并不认同。他说，这件事情不能这样不了了之。由于拍卖公司以商业机密为由，拒绝透露季老藏品来源的详细信息，他已于上周末以季先生家中藏品失窃为由向海淀区公安分局刑警大队报案，希望借助司法调查彻底查清事实。

　　但迄今为止，海淀刑警大队对此事未有任何动作。张衡认为，在这个节骨眼上，北大在未向季羡林交待有关此事的任何情况，也未征求季羡林任何意见的前提下，擅自更换秘书，不是对季羡林尊重的做法。

　　1

　　 事件进展

　　“丢画事件”

　　北大成立调查组

　　季羡林孙女近期或回国，称早知悉盗卖情况

　　11月3日，北大新闻发言人赵为民表示，北大针对季羡林先生丢画一事已经成立了调查组，希望将事情搞清楚再予公开。对于季羡林先生换秘书一事，赵为民表示并没听说此事。

　　此前有传言认为，季先生藏品流失，而季先生写信要求秘书杨锐不再担任秘书工作，因此杨锐有很大嫌疑。对此，季羡林弟子钱文忠表示，目前并没有直接证据证明两者有关联，希望大家不要随意揣测，而是等待有关部门调查解决。

　　季先生的女儿婉如毕业于天津大学，后来成为核工业部的高级工程师，现已病故。儿子季承如今也是古稀老人，大学毕业后分配在中国科学院工作。季老的孙女季清、孙子季泓在美国，外孙在加拿大。

　　唐师曾说，季老的孙女季清已写信给北大领导，并将信件通过电子邮件抄送给他。在唐师曾的电子邮箱里，记者看到唐师曾和季清之间的两封通信。季清对季先生健康状况表示担忧，表示自己愿意近期回国，并相信北大领导会妥善处理此事。此外，季清提到，“爷爷的收藏被盗卖的事件，我其实早已知悉”，在唐师曾同季老交谈的视频里，季老也曾说过画“丢了两三年了”。钱文忠说，自己也早听说过类似传闻。

　　2

　　 事件缘起

　　季羡林好友张衡发现：

　　季老部分藏品现身拍卖会

　　张衡是季羡林的朋友，也是一名收藏爱好者。2007年4月27日，张衡参加了“北京金兆艺术品拍卖会中国书画专场拍卖会”。拍卖会上，他发现了季羡林收藏的16幅书画作品，包括费孝通、吴祖光、臧克家等名人的书画作品。“按照季羡林的性格，他不会把这些藏品扔出来换钱花。”张衡说。

　　张衡于是拍下了14件，成交价共6.1万元。此后，张衡又陆续在几次小型拍卖会上发现了10多件季羡林的藏品。张衡说：“不管出于什么原因，季羡林的藏品这样流散出来都是很不正常的。”

　　张衡说，他很想向季羡林当面求证这批书画作品是不是季老授权拍卖的，但季老住在301医院，见面非常困难。于是他给北大校办通了电话。但10多天过去了，北大校办没有给他回话。但他却意外地接到了季羡林秘书杨锐的电话。张衡说：“她很不客气，质问我，你是山东大学的人，凭什么管我们北大的事？”

　　3

　　 季羡林：从没委托别人卖画

　　10月28日晚，唐师曾和张衡等人在北京市301医院见到了季羡林。唐师曾说，季老思路清晰，说话很有条理。唐师曾向记者播放了他采访季羡林的DV录像。

　　录像中，唐师曾问：“您家里的藏画是怎么流出去的？”季羡林答：“过程不知道，但很多人都知道这件事。”

　　问：“多长时间了？”

　　季羡林答：“丢画两三年了。”

　　问：“为什么不报案？”

　　季羡林答：“小事一桩，不知道怎么传出去的，以为就是(别人)偷几幅画卖，看来认识是不够了。”

　　采访中，季羡林还表示，他不缺钱，没必要去卖画，他也从来没有委托别人去卖画。

　　10月20日，季羡林手书了一份证明：我从来没有委托任何人拍卖我收藏的字画和其他物品。因为我并不需要钱，上述流言，别有用心，请大家千万不要上当。

　　采访临近结束时，季羡林多次表示，他不愿意住在301医院，住院的费用也由自己承担。他说：“我希望回北大去。”

　　(南方都市报)

　　4 (来源：南方网)

　　(责任编辑：王雪)

　　[我来说两句]

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　　美国民主的真检验：OBAMA选上了美国总统

　　Sen. John McCain on Tuesday urged all Americans to join him in congratulating Sen. Barack Obama on his projected victory in the presidential election.

　　

　　Sen. John McCain congratulates Sen. Barack Obama on his projected victory.

　　

　　1 of 3

　　

　　more photos ?


　　"I pledge to him tonight to do all in my power to help him lead us through the many challenges we face," McCain said before his supporters in Phoenix, Arizona.

　　McCain's running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin, was standing with him, but she did not speak.

　　With his projected win, Obama will become the nation's 44th president.

　　Obama will address the country from a rally in Chicago, Illinois, later Tuesday night.

　　The Illinois senator will become the first African-American to win the presidency.

　　Supporters in Chicago cheering, "Yes, we can" were met with cries of "Yes, we did."

　　Obama's former rival for the Democratic nomination, Sen. Hillary Clinton said in a statement that "we are celebrating an historic victory for the American people."

　　"This was a long and hard fought campaign but the result was well worth the wait. Together, under the leadership of President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, and a Democratic Congress, we will chart a better course to build a new economy and rebuild our leadership in the world."

　　The Illinois senator is projected to pick up a big win in Virginia, a state that hasn't voted for a Democratic president since 1964.

　　Obama also is projected to beat Sen. John McCain in Ohio, a battleground state that was considered a must-win for the Republican candidate. Watch more on Obama's Ohio win ?
　　Earlier in the evening, senior McCain aides were growing pessimistic about the Arizona senator's chances.

　　Going into the election, national polls showed Obama with an 8-point lead.

　　Election Night in America

　　

　　Watch history unfold with CNN and the best political team on television.

　　Tonight

　　Election Center ?
　　In addition to the presidential contest, voters were making choices in a number of key House and Senate races that could determine whether the Democrats strengthen their hold on Congress.

　　Former Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, will win a Senate seat in Virginia, CNN projects. He will replace retiring Republican Sen. John Warner.

　　Incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole, a Republican, is projected to lose her North Carolina seat to Democratic challenger Kay Hagan. Watch Dole concede defeat ?
　　Dole is the wife of 1996 Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole.

　　CNN also projects Democrats will win two other Senate seats currently held by Republicans. In New Hampshire, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen will win over incumbent John Sununu, and in New Mexico, Democrat Tom Udall will defeat Republican Steve Pearce.

　　Don't Miss

　　Machine breakdowns lead to long lines

　　Obama in Chicago; 'I feel really good'

　　McCain heads west in final campaign swing

　　State-by-state polling

　　Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell held onto his seat in Kentucky.

　　Delaware voters re-elected Obama's running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, to his seventh term. iReport.com: Share your Election Day reaction with CNN
　　CNN's Ed Henry said there were lots of long faces in the lobby of the McCain headquarters at the Arizona Biltmore hotel as McCain allies watched returns showing Senate Republicans losing their seats. Watch what McCain says about the race ?
　　Voters expressed excitement and pride in their country after casting their ballots Tuesday in what has proved to be a historic election.

　　When the ballots are counted, the United States will have elected either its first African-American president or its oldest first-term president and first female vice president.

　　Poll workers reported high turnout across many parts of the country, and some voters waited hours to cast their ballots. Read about election problems
　　Reports of minor problems and delays in opening polls began surfacing early Tuesday, shortly after polls opened on the East Coast.

　　The presidential candidates both voted early in the day before heading out to the campaign trail one last time. Watch Obama family at polls ?
　　Tuesday also marked the end of the longest presidential campaign season in U.S. history -- 21 months -- and both candidates took the opportunity to make their final pitch to voters.

　　As McCain and Obama emerged from their parties' conventions, the race was essentially a toss-up, with McCain campaigning on his experience and Obama on the promise of change. But the race was altered by the financial crisis that hit Wall Street in September. Watch how this election is history in the making ?
　　Although most of the attention has been focused on the presidential race, the outcome of congressional elections across the country will determine whether the Democrats increase their clout on Capitol Hill.

　　Few predict that the Democrats are in danger of losing their control of either the House or the Senate, but all eyes will be on nearly a dozen close Senate races that are key to whether the Democrats get 60 seats in the Senate.

　　With 60 votes, Democrats could end any Republican filibusters or other legislative moves to block legislation.

　　Many political observers also predict that the Democrats could expand their majority in the House.

　　Voters will also weigh in on a number of ballot initiatives across the country, many of them focused on social issues like abortion and affirmative action. Check out the hot-button issues on the ballot

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　　All About U.S. Presidential Election ? Elections and Voting
　　

　　搜狐博客 张五常作品 日志 经济评论

　　不救工业，楼市何救哉？

　　在国内的飞机上见乘客手持报章的大字标题：「政府救市凶猛，楼市坚冰难融。」没有借来一读，但心想，那不是发了神经吗？

　　曾几何时，是年多前吧，读报，某官员说一定要把国内的楼市打死。当时正在打，乱打一通。楼市也真顽固：这里那里交易要加税，谁可买谁不可买有规限，利率加了多次，借钱诸多留难，百分之七十的住宅单位要建在九十平方以下，廉租房要拜香港的难民时期为师……打了大半年，终于把楼市打死了。应该大事庆祝一番才对，怎会叫起救命来了？

　　也是几天前，国内某报的标题说北京要鼓励劳力密集的工业，增加就业机会云云。我想：曾几何时，不是说要搞经济转型吗？不是说要淘汰劳力密集的夕阳工业而走向高科技的发展吗？怎么一下子又变了卦？

　　老人家快要气死了，说说笑，发一下牢骚，或可延年益寿。转谈真理吧。一个像中国那么人多，人均农地极少而天然资源又乏善足陈的国家，大事发展工业是唯一的可靠出路。在这必需的庞大农转工的过程中，工人住得差、吃不饱、苦不堪言。这些现象无可避免。但像中国那样的国家要发展起来，有多个穷国参与竞争，别无善策。整国的高楼大厦、公路、大桥等都是令人哭得出来的劳工血汗建造起来的。有幸有不幸，机会存在，好些劳工成功地打上去，生活改进了。新劳动合同法意图协助劳工，但除了很少的一部分，尤其是那一小撮要搞事图利的人，基本上此法是害了穷人自力更生的机会。不容易找到一个比我更关心劳苦大众的——抗战期间我比他们还要苦，苦很多。然而，研究法例的效果是我的专业，学术的尊严不容许我说假话。每次依理直说都给网上客骂个半死，但历史的经验说，热情是换不到饭吃的。

　　我和太太不是什么慈善家，但认为吃少一点无所谓，见到需要帮助的人，没有手软过。可惜毕竟是小人物，爱莫能助之感天天有。我的主要本钱是经济分析得准，地球史实知得多，动笔写点文章，解释与推断因果，是我可以帮助劳苦大众的最佳方法吧。我认为演变到今天，新劳动法的主要困难再不是初时的第十四条，而是劳资双方的关系正在急剧恶化。合约的条件不能让双方自由议订，不斗个你死我活才奇怪。令人睡不着觉的故事，罄竹难书，篇幅所限，这里从略了。

　　先说一个大麻烦。因为人民币的处理不当与新劳动法的引进，国内无数工厂关门主要是在地球金融风暴之前出现的。停产、减产、没有注册而失踪的无数，公布的八万多工厂倒闭是低估了。更远为低估的是百分之四的失业率。某些地方，某些情况，失业率是难以估计的。

　　我要赶着说的大麻烦，是为写这篇文章再找做厂的查询而获得的。很不幸，非常不幸，地球的金融风暴对中国工业带来的不良效果，比我此前估计的严重！是赶工的季节，但自十月初起形势恶化，门前冷落车马稀，我因此推断：如果北京不迅速大手处理，在未来的农历新年之前——近农历除夕之际——神州大地会再出现工厂倒闭潮，使工业区的已经出现问题的治安急转直下。不能排除骚乱会发生。

　　屋漏更兼连夜雨，地球风暴真麻烦。立刻取消新劳动法，取消最低工资，肯定会帮助，虽然可以帮多少很难说。另一方面，在这个时候撤销这些法例，不明事理但还有工作的工人可能吵起来。如果北京不当机立断，起码用一些婉转的手法软化这些法例为零，使做厂的见到一线生机，三个月后的新春很头痛。多一事不如少一事，干脆地取消新劳动法会减少麻烦。这里要说明，我急着查询的只是工业的重灾区，其它没有时间顾及。

　　转说楼市，像中国那样的国家，经济发展主要靠工业支持。目前，楼价跌得最少的是上海，而上海的优质楼价下跌甚微。这些现象是因为上海主要是一个商业城市，还有国际的商业人士支持着。一般而言，工业遇难，中国的楼价不会出现奇迹。想想吧：无论工人回乡耕种（据说不少）或失业，他们空出的床位，是楼市少了支持，而老板失踪是更大的支持损失了。工厂倒闭，厂房空了，厂租急跌，对住宅楼市也有负面影响。这是因为住宅用地的供应早晚增加的预期，会受厂房空置的影响。更明显是工业的收入减少对楼价有负面作用。不明显的，但不可能错，是楼市两年前的急升，炒作之外，一个主要原因是工业发展的形势好，鼓励了市场对楼房需求不断上升的预期，而这预期今天是改变了。

　　不久前建议北京取消楼房买卖的所有税项。目前只减了一小点，怕什么呢？不久前也建议北京大手减息，一手减两至三厘吧。目前减了三四次，每次减幅小，怕什么呢？十次减息，加起来减两厘半，比不上一次过减两厘半那么有效。这些可以舒缓楼市的劣势，要有奇迹，工业一定要转头回升。

　　不久前说六个月后中国可能出现通缩，这推断今天不变。最近的观察，认为北京刚公布的百分之四点六通胀率是比实际偏高了。要强调的，是在目前的国际灾难形势下，通胀率回头上升一点不是坏事。赌他一手吧：央行要设法把通胀率推到百分之五至七之间。试行推高此率，在今天的形势下，央行会发现不是那么容易。

　　我说过，经过数十年的观察与思考，我不同意佛利民支持的无锚货币制，不同意以货币政策或调整利率来调控经济。然而，目前中国的央行还没有建立好一个不需要管这些政策的货币制度。形势不利，通缩出现肯定是烦上加烦，所以逼着要再用佛老之见。他认为通胀率达百分之五是可以接受的上限，但形势不对头，很不对头，多加一两个百分点是比较上算的。不容易，因为通缩之势已成。滥发钞票可使通胀大升，这不对，但要增加通胀率两个百分点──过了关容易调整的──在目前的形势下很不容易。经济不景有不同的性质，不是所有不景通胀都可以协助，我认为这次是可以帮一点的。

　　美国最近公布的第三季消费下降数字很不妥，因为雷曼兄弟事发后只占这第三季十多天。期望地球风暴会很快地平息是不切实际的看法。北京不要学香港的官员那样，大叫大嚷地吓死人，但反应要快，要果断，看准了治方要下重药。中国的困难比美国及欧洲的小很多，法例的修改远为容易，走位还有很大的空间。这是说，如果北京知道怎样处理，做得快，做到足，还是出现我担心的负增长的话，地球的大萧条会比上世纪三十年代严重。

　　

　　谁是下任美国财长？共和党首选费尔德斯坦？

　　American voters are lining up to choose the man who will choose the next Treasury Secretary.

　　Whoever Barack Obama or John McCain names to replace Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will be particularly important since the federal government has already taken unprecedented steps to intervene in the financial markets in an attempt to deal with the credit crisis.

　　As such, some experts argue that the president-elect could name his nominee for the post as early as Wednesday morning.

　　"This is a national emergency," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute. "The key of a new administration coming in will be credibility on economic issues."

　　The Treasury Department is set to make more decisions in the next few weeks about how to spend much of the $700 billion set aside as part of the bank bailout bill enacted last month. That increases the urgency for the next president to have a smooth transition in the Treasury Department.

　　Top economic policy advisors to the two campaigns did not respond to questions about how quickly a new Treasury secretary would be named. And they wouldn't comment on possible choices being considered.

　　Yet, with an economic summit of 20 of the world's top economies scheduled to be held in Washington, D.C. on Nov. 14 and 15, experts said they'd be surprised if that summit started without a new Treasury secretary being nominated.

　　Who would Obama pick?

　　While the campaigns aren't talking much about who the candidates might pick, that hasn't stopped experts from speculating about who is on the short list of candidates.

　　New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner is seen as one of the leading candidates for Obama. Geithner was the Fed's point person on the rescue of Bear Stearns and American International Group (AIG, Fortune 500) as well as the failed talks to keep Lehman Brothers out of bankruptcy.

　　But Geithner could generate some controversy due to the decision to let Lehman fail, which many blame for the financial crisis that followed. There have also been many criticisms of the AIG bailout.

　　Still, with expectations that the Democrats will continue to have a majority in the Senate, few believe Obama would have trouble winning approval for whoever he nominates.

　　Achuthan said he doubts questions about Lehman or AIG would knock out Geithner.

　　"The problem is, everyone in the room goofed, and you're probably going to pick someone who was in the room," he said.

　　Obama economic advisor Warren Buffett has also been suggested as a potential pick for Treasury secretary. And during the second presidential debate, McCain even endorsed him as a possible pick if he wins.

　　But Buffett, the legendary billionaire investor who controls Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA, Fortune 500), told a forum sponsored by Fortune magazine last month that he would like to see Paulson asked to stay on. Paulson is on record as saying he does not want to remain in the post, though.

　　Buffett also had praise for Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. chairman Sheila Bair, who others have speculated could be selected by Obama.

　　Bair has taken an active role in trying to stop banks from foreclosing on homes and Obama has said that this would be one of the main issues he would want his Treasury Secretary working on. Bair would also be the first woman to hold this Cabinet position.

　　Two former Treasury secretaries are also mentioned among possible Obama picks - Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers. Rubin has ruled out a return to Washington, however.

　　David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's, suggested that New Jersey Governor John Corzine, a former CEO of Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and former U.S. Senator, would also be a possibility since his experience on Wall Street and in Congress could be a plus.

　　Who would McCain pick?

　　A need to straddle both Wall Street and Congress is one reason that New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has been mentioned as a possible choice for McCain.

　　But Greg Valliere, chief political strategist of the Stanford Group, said he believes that the leading candidate for McCain would be Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, who just retired as head of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

　　Feldstein was a mentor to many of the nation's top conservative economists and was one of the architects of the Bush administration's tax cuts.

　　"I see McCain looking at Feldstein, Feldstein and maybe Marty Feldstein," said Valliere.

　　But Feldstein, one of the strongest advocates of privatizing Social Security, could have trouble getting through a Democrat-controlled Senate. His current position on the board of directors of AIG wouldn't help him either.

　　It had been widely assumed earlier this year that former senator Phil Gramm, one of McCain's top economic advisors, would be a leading candidate for the post.

　　But when he told the Washington Times in July that the economy was only in a "mental recession" and that America had become a "nation of whiners" he created a political firestorm that led to his leaving the campaign.

　　John Thain, the CEO of Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500), has also been mentioned as a possible candidate, especially since Merrill is in the process of being purchased by Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500).

　　Thain has been tapped to head the combined firm's corporate and investment banking operations, but not one of the top positions at the bank after the merger. He also formerly served as CEO of the New York Stock Exchange (NYX) and president of Goldman Sachs.

　　But Thain has little experience in the public sector, a handicap according to Wyss.

　　"You need someone with credibility on Wall Street. But you also need someone with the experience and clout to go to Senate and get stuff passed," said Wyss.

　　Still, Wyss said Thain is a stronger candidate than some of the high-profile former CEO's who advised McCain during the campaign - former Hewlett-Packard (HP) CEO Carly Fiorina and former eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500) CEO Meg Whitman. McCain did mention Whitman by name when asked about his possible Treasury secretary during the second presidential debate.

　　"Under the current circumstances, you really need someone who knows finance," said Wyss. He said lack of a Wall Street background was a problem for Bush's first two Treasury secretaries, Alcoa CEO Paul O'Neill and CSX CEO John Snow.

　　"They didn't understand finance even though they had been CEO's of big companies," Wyss said.

　　Former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is another possible choice mentioned by experts. The former Massachusetts governor was on McCain's short list of possible vice presidential candidates, suggesting he's already been vetted by the campaign.

　　Romney also founded Bain Capital, a successful venture capital and investment firm. Plus, his father is a former top auto executive, a background that could prove useful if the Treasury Department becomes involved in a bailout of U.S. automakers.

　　

　　哈佛大学经济学教授SUSAN ATHEY对申请经济学博士项目的一些建议

　　Advice for Applying to Grad School in Economics

　　Disclaimer: These are just opinions, and some people may disagree with the claims here. You should seek opinions from your advisors.


　　Choosing classes

　　Graduate schools care much more about what hard classes you've taken and how you've done in them than about overall GPA.

　　If you have taken difficult classes its probably a good idea to point this out in your application essay because schools might not know what the math classes are, which economics classes are the advanced ones, etc.

　　Real analysis is an especially important class because it tends to be demanding everywhere, and forces you to do logical and formal proofs. Get a good grade in this class.

　　Taking some graduate classes can be a good thing, but be prepared. You will be at a disadvantage since the grad students will all have study groups. Try to join a study group and devote serious time to any graduate classes you take. More and more applicants are taking graduate classes.

　　Students from top universities who have the bare minimum coursework (an undergraduate major, no graduate economics or math classes, and only basic undergraduate math classes) will need something really outstanding -- like a thesis that is publishable in a top economics field journal--to get fellowships at the top two or three graduate programs. Typically the strongest applicants have some distinguishing feature, like scoring near the top of a graduate class at a top PhD program, very strong math (e.g. graduate level real analysis and topology), or an outstanding thesis or coauthored research.

　　Undergraduate classes at most U.S. universities are much easier than graduate classes. To be a strong applicant you should be getting mostly or all As in undergraduate economics classes--with grade inflation even A-'s are not going to help you. Some poor grades your freshman year won't disqualify you though, doing really well in very advanced classes will more than compensate.

　　Recommendation letters

　　Recommendations which are not from economists have very little value. Recommendations from economists who have contacts at the schools you are applying to are most useful. However, one letter from someone you have worked for after undergrad may be useful to document your work ethic, maturity, etc.

　　Get recommendations from people who know you well.

　　Corollary: Get to know some professors well. Professors will be very excited that you want to get a Ph.D. in economics. Don't be afraid to approach them. Listen to their advice.

　　Give professors every possible opportunity to say they don't feel comfortable recommending you to the school you're applying to. If they express any hesitation don't have them send it. One bad letter hurts much more than any good letters can help. A letter that mentions a poor work ethic, or basically almost any substantive negative, probably spells death at the best programs.

　　It's fine to have a letter from someone you worked for even if they didn't teach you in a class.

　　If you do not have relationships with economics professors (e.g. you are a math major) or if you attend a college or university without faculty that have connections at the top Ph.D. programs, you still have a good chance of admission if the rest of your application is stellar. Just be aware that objective criteria such as GRE scores, grades in hard math classes, and essays will receive more weight, and make sure that you do everything you can to help the admissions committee evaluate your record.

　　Your professors' letters will be most effective if they compare you specifically to other students in top graduate schools. This is especially important if your professors do not have personal relationships with the faculty at the top programs. The admissions committee needs to be able to calibrate the content of the letter. To get into Harvard or MIT, the letter probably needs to be pretty explicit that the student is comparable to other students who have been to those programs and succeeded. For foreign students, where transcripts are particularly hard to evaluate, these comparative statements carry a lot of weight. The comparative statements should be backed up with reasoning--such as comparing analytic abilities, coursework, the quality of the thesis, etc. You can tell your recommender about this site since you don't want to tell them what to do!


　　Application Essays

　　On your graduate school application its very important to write an essay saying what kinds of areas of economics you're interested in, what questions you think are interesting, what papers you've read that you've liked etc. Be as specific as possible. It may be helpful to discuss your thesis or research assistant work. Its not necessary to have a specific thesis proposal, and odds are if you try to pretend you have one when you really don't you'll come off as sounding naive which is a bad thing. Mostly schools just read these to see what field you're interested in and to get a sense whether you have any idea what you're getting yourself into. You should therefore try to talk intelligently about your topic of interest to show that you understand something about what research in that field would be like.

　　Get someone to read your essays, preferably an advanced graduate student or a faculty member.

　　Application essays for NSF fellowships have typically been judged differently. They seem to want a specific thesis proposal and value clear brief surveys of the existing literature, a clear statement of what you'd like to add to this, a discussion of datasets you might want to use etc. They don't like vague statements about liking economics, and don't seem to mind that people aren't really going to do what they say.

　　NSF Fellowships

　　Every student applying to graduate school should apply for an NSF fellowship. Winning one gives you a much better financial deal than any school will offer. Even if you don't win just the fact that you applied will increase the probability of your being accepted by graduate schools.

　　Don't be surprised to find that the fellowships are only weakly influenced by grades and GRE scores. The essays matter a lot.

　　Even if its questionable whether your eligible go ahead and apply. The rules seem to change a lot.

　　Apply from your home address if you attend college in states like Massachusetts or California. There is some allocation by home state, since this is a federal program.

　　Application timing

　　As long as its in by the deadline it doesn't matter. It is an advantage to have your folder be complete very soon after the deadline, which means making sure your recommenders get their letters in.

　　GRE Scores

　　Though the test is not necessarily a good predictor of success, it matters a lot (especially the quantitative portion). Studying for the GRE dramatically increases your scores so you should definitely practice.

　　The economics GRE doesn't usually count for much, but it does give a chance for people who haven't taken much economics to make a positive impression.

　　Financial statements

　　Its hard to generalize on what you should do on these. At Harvard, for example, its always best to make it seem like you have money because their administration has a rule that they can't accept people without offering them enough money to come. As a result they often reject people who at the end of the process they would have preferred to people they give money to. At other schools, if you seem to have a lot of money it may reduce the size of the fellowship offer you get. It may also, however, increase the probability of getting accepted because a school with a few partial fellowships to offer will give them only to people who seem to have the resources to accept them.

　　Where to Apply

　　If you are well-qualified, you should apply to all of the top-ranked economics departments (e.g. MIT, Harvard, Stanford, Princeton, Chicago, Yale, Berkeley), and several backup schools, depending on the strength of your record. You should definitely seek advice from faculty members on this.

　　If you have a somewhat weaker record, there are lots of good graduate programs out there, but you need to shop more carefully for schools that have well-known advisors or have recently been investing a lot in graduate students. Some middle-ranked schools (like recently Pennsylvania State) aggressively recruit prospective students and have placed graduating PhD students in top 5 schools by investing heavily in the students. You need to do a lot of homework, and talk to lots of faculty about good places to apply. Information about good places to go is likely to be dispersed.

　　Don't overlook the small but prestigious PhD programs at business schools: Stanford GSB has a placement record that rivals the top economics departments, and Harvard and Northwestern also have programs worth looking into. These programs typically offer more individual attention and have more generous funding.

　　The applicant pool seems to be getting more sophisticated and well prepared all the time, so if you have something like a more "typical" undergraduate background (undergraduate major, a couple of math classes, a thesis, mostly As), you need to cast a fairly wide net. If you have more than a couple of B's you need to cast wider still.

　　Visits and Contacts at Graduate Schools

　　With rare exceptions, you SHOULD NOT initiate contact with faculty members at schools you are applying to before the admissions decisions. You will seem like a pest and like someone who doesn't understand the system. After you are admitted there will be plenty of opportunities to meet faculty. If you feel like you have an exceptional case for contacting a faculty member at another school, seek the advice of your advisor first.

　　After admission you should visit your top choices if at all possible. You will learn an enormous amount then, swamping what you have managed to figure out before then.

　　Talk to the students to learn how often they meet with their advisors, who is really accessible, and how the morale is among students. Some faculty do a lot of aggressive recruiting but don't spend a lot of time with their students later. The current students can tell you how advising really works.

　　Anyone who tells you that one department is best for every student is not being very thoughtful. You need to determine whether a department feels right to you, and whether you feel like there are a set of potential advisors for you. Your advisor will have enormous power over your life. You need to be comfortable. Different departments have different strengths, cultures, and styles. Some fields within departments have very strong subcultures and impressive placement records. Learn about those.

　　Find out about the placement records of the programs. Don't just find out about the top 5 students--find out about how number 10 or 15 in a class did, and whether they were happy. Even if you are quite certain you will be a star, it's possible you won't be the very best, and even if you are, it will be a lot more fun if your classmates aren't unemployed, despondent and neglected.

　　Don't get too caught up in overall stereotypes. Faculty and students all get very enthusiastic about grad student recruiting and tend to over-emphasize differences among programs. There are many more similarities than differences across top programs, and every department has fields with very different advising styles. In the end you need to find two or three advisors and a couple of good student buddies. A department with more outstanding faculty and students makes it more likely you will find your matches, but the subculture of your friends and advisors is far more salient to your life than the overall department.

　　Americans go to the polls today in what is already one of the most historic elections in U.S. history.

　　

　　And it will make more history once the votes are counted.

　　Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, could be the nation's first African-American president. Or Republican nominee Sen. John McCain could be the oldest president elected to a first term.

　　McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, could be the first woman elected vice president.

　　Americans also are expected to head to the polls in record numbers on Tuesday, election officials have predicted -- after the record-shattering number of people who have already cast ballots in early voting.

　　As of Monday, more than 24 million voters had voted. Election experts predicted more than a third of the electorate will have voted before polls opened on Election Day.

　　1987—1988年价格闯关的前因后果

　　 —中国价格改革30年（之四）

　　

　　华生 北京师范大学教授 珠海分校校长


　　1987年仅仅出台了农副产品价格改革，而搁置了生产资料价格的大调整。改革又沿着放调结合的原有轨道运行。但围绕着价格双轨制的争论，则日益尖锐起来。

　　双轨战略蹒跚前行


　　如果说在1984年莫干山会议上，放调结合、增量渐进的双轨过渡思路，还只是年轻人一时碰撞出的火花，那么随着中青年改革者迅速参与到经济体制改革的实际进程和高层的决策中，双轨制战略开始迅速成为一种理性的思考。1985年中，中国经济体制改革研究所的刁新申在所里其他六、七个研究人员的协助下，提交了“价格：双轨制的作用和进一步改革的方向”的报告，提出，生产资料价格双轨制，是随着渐进改革中国家指令性计划减少的过程发展起来的。它通过边际调节的作用，改变和优化了企业行为和资源供求配置关系，因而提出近期任务是完善双轨制，同时加快其它领域的改革。当年年底，面对各方对双轨制的批评和指责，我和何家成、罗小朋、张学军、边勇壮合作，写了一份“中国：进一步改革的问题和思路”的报告报送国务院，并于1986年在国务院的相关会议上多次向领导们当面阐述这个思路。我们认为，在中国这样一个发展极不平衡的二元经济大国，经济模式转换不可能一步完成，必须有一个双重体制并存和转化时期，价格双轨制是模式转换时期双重体制并存的典型表现。国家主动自觉地因势利导，让计划外价格合法化，组织和发展市场，同时不断小幅上调牌价，逐步使价格归一，不会加剧只会缩短双重体制转化的时间和痛苦，是完全正确的战略。它给计划外的城镇集体企业、乡镇企业的大发展打开了空间，使国营大中型企业也在利益导向下自动转向市场，是一件大好事。“双轨制提供了这种形式，这就是它的历史贡献。正是在这个意义上，双轨制是我国找到的风险较小、兼容性很大的特殊转换形式，是中国经济体制改革的伟大创造”（见《经济研究》1986年第2期）。这样就把双轨制从价格进一步推广到整个体制模式转换上。当时，也有一部分国内外的著名经济学家，如刘国光、张卓元、戴园晨、波兰的布鲁斯等对双轨制表达了比较肯定的态度和宽容的看法。

　　不过，随着计划外产品的比重逐年上升，对国家指令性计划冲击日盛。“分到订不到，订到拿不到，”使许多计划指标落空。企业为了多得利润，屁股都往计划外转。支持者说这其实也不完全是坏事，反对者说这搞乱了经济秩序。计划内牌价本应进行的不断上调由于总想着搞大动作，使得大调出不了台，小调也耽误了。这样计划内外价格的巨大差距使得挂靠党政军机关的各种翻牌公司林立，倒买倒卖，获取差价。而人们原来寄希望的商业物资部门当时本身也没有真正企业化，难以发挥平抑物价的主渠道作用，许多甚至混水摸鱼。这样到了1988年中，双轨制几乎已经成了人人喊打的过街老鼠，是经济混乱和官倒腐败的代名词。媒体上还借用一句我接受记者访谈的话，说双轨制是“播下的是龙种，收获的却是跳蚤”的“华生现象。”这时，只有我们少数铁杆倡导者支持者还在大声疾呼，双轨制不是立即取消问题，而是应规范强化、整顿市场秩序、加快放调结合的过渡问题。同时我们认为，即便是被认为是双轨制最大弊端的倒卖赚差价问题，在当时公有制经济占绝对优势的情况下，也绝大部分落在了这些企业本身，增强了企业活力、市场适应能力和向心力。个人只是跟着某些行政性翻牌公司赚了一些小便宜。当时唯一的私营企业就是个体户，它们还做不了生产资料的买卖。对双轨制的抨击更多是对改革诸多问题的情绪发泄，而不是在当时大体上还是比较平均主义的年代，真有多大的贫富悬殊。我国的农产品采购和销售从来都是双轨制，但并没有出现什么倒卖问题，就是因为实行了严格的定购和票证分配制度。生产资料价格的双轨制也完全可以借鉴这方面的经验，通过整顿市场秩序来实现平稳过渡。但当时这种声音过于微弱，已经被淹没在一片批评声中。1986年底被搁置的目标设计、整体规划、闯关突破的思想在社会上和理论界呼声渐高，并再次在高层被一些领导反复提及和重新占据上风。

　　实际上，邓小平虽然主张改革从整体上要走一步、看一步，摸石头过河，但他对先走哪些步，后走什么步，一直有着自己的思索。1984年城市改革一开始，他就指出物价改革是首要问题，1985年中又指出物价这个关非过不可。但他并不认为能够一蹴而就，而是主张渐进过渡，认为能用5年时间解决就很了不起。这是他为什么当时在价格改革刚搞了一年多时，不急于求成，而重视市场主体的企业改革乃至金融改革的原因。与此同时， 1986年底，他向前来汇报工作的几位总理交代，“我们的改革到底要走几步？多长时间完成？请你们考虑一下。”（见《邓小平文选》第三卷）


　　1988年价格闯关的遇挫


　　1987年中，因学潮引起的政治波动平息后，邓小平一面部署党的十三大和社会主义初级阶段理论的准备，同时就提出经济改革的步子要加快。并考虑如何加快的问题。1988年4月，七届人大顺利召开，政府换届后，小平同志5月5日找新任总理李鹏谈话。李鹏汇报了人大会上代表们反映最强烈的就是物价上涨和市场价格混乱问题，小平同志当即表示物价问题肯定要解决。鉴于这时城市改革已经进行了3年多，随后，邓小平很快就明确提出，理顺物价，改革才能加快步伐。价格补贴使财政负担过重，所以，不解决物价问题就不能放下包袱，轻装前进。1988年5月，国家放开肉、菜、蛋、糖价格，市场上有一些抢购和议论，但总体平稳。5月19日，邓小平在接见外宾时首次公开强调他三年前的思想，说改革也要过五关斩六将，过价格这一关很不容易，要担很大风险，因此要大胆细心，发现问题就做调整。“但物价改革非搞不可，要迎着风险，迎着困难上，”十全十美的办法是没有的。“我总是告诉我的同志们不要怕冒风险，胆子还要再大一些。如果前怕狼后怕虎，那就走不了路。”由于整体规划、一举突破的思想几年来已经有了相当思想基础和社会影响，批判双轨制腐败寻租、力促立即并轨又占据了道德高地和成为压倒性的舆论，理论界和媒体很快把邓小平决心要过物价改革这一关的意见解读为毕其功为一役的改革整体攻关突破，出现了一片“过关有风险，关后是平川”、“此关早晚要过，迟过不如早过，长痛不如短痛”的造势呼声。在这种氛围中，中央随即决定在原定下半年进一步放开名烟酒价格的同时，重拾1986年的思路，制定一个大的物价工资总体改革规划。5月30日到6月1日中央政治局召开了一个三天的全体会议，并请重点省市委书记列席，总题目是理顺价格，并决定由国务院抓紧制订具体方案，以便8月在北戴河召开中央工作会议，讨论拍板。7月11日中央财经领导小组会议确定5年理顺价格方案，前3年走大步，后2年微调，计划5年物价总计上升70％-90％，工资上升90％-100％。8月15日到17日，北戴河会议召开，批准了物价和工资改革方案，同时决定用最严厉手段压缩基本建设和集团购买力，为改革创造外部条件。8月19日，新闻公布中央政治局讨论并通过了《关于价格、工资改革初步方案》，一些省市随即开始掀起大规模的抢购风。随着抢购商品的恐慌风潮在全国越演越烈，8月27日晚，时任中央总书记召开紧急会议，说已征得小平同志同意，暂停物价改革方案，治理环境、整顿秩序，并决定由国务院发通知。这样，实际上是放弃了整体规划突破，回到放调结合、渐进推进的原有轨道。8月30日，国务院正式发布通知，下半年不再出台新的调价措施，下一年的价格改革也是走小步。工作重点从深化改革转到治理环境、整顿秩序上来。邓小平很快也总结了中央这次闯关的经验教训，表示“速度快本来是好事，但太快了也带来麻烦。通货膨胀主要是管理不严造成的，我们缺乏经验，我们的胆子够大了，现在需要稳。十亿人口的大国，要力求稳定。走一步，总结一下经验，有错误就改，不要使小错误变成大错误，这是我们遵循的原则”(见《邓小平年谱》下)。表现了他鼓励大胆改革、不怕风险、走一步总结一下，错了改了就是了的一贯坦率作风。

　　与政治家坦承有错就改的直率不同，经济学家遇到挫折则很难承认自己的理论有偏差。一些经济学家后来果然把1988年价格闯关的失败归结为通货膨胀的情况下，改革的时机不适合。这恐怕是多少颠倒了因果关系。因为改革中要保持较高的经济增长速度是邓小平的一贯思想，也是改革开放30年令世人叹服的主要成就。改革很难停下来准备好一个宽松的环境再推进。“管住货币，放开价格”，听起来诱人，但对操作者来说还只是纸上谈兵。中央之所以提物价工资改革方案，就是因为做实际工作的人都明白，物价上涨了，工资必须要上调。在大幅提高物价从而工资的情况下，货币供应量不可能不增加。本来1987年调整农产品价格，零售物价上升7.3％，CPI已经上升8％。1988年上半年刚放开肉、蛋、菜、糖价格，7月底，又放开名烟、酒价格，名烟酒价格一下上涨5至10倍，物价上涨已经是两位数，在这种情况下再大张旗鼓地规划出台大的物价工资改革方案，不可能不刺激人们的通货膨胀预期。所以难怪后来当经济局势平稳下来，年末中央召开民主生活会，开展批评与自我批评，总结经验教训时，大家首先谈到上半年有对形势估计过于乐观的问题。同时不少人都觉得有上当感。很多人感慨不能好高骛远，搞自己并不清楚的规划，说看来摸着石头过河还是唯一正确的道路。有人总结，价格合理化是一个长期的过程，不能太性急。消费过热是推动通胀的重要因素。连时任国务院总理李鹏也发言，说看来改革不能搞目标模式，正确与否要看是否发展生产力，看能否稳定局势，并说以后不能只听那些既没有实践经验，又不了解国情的“理论家”的意见（见李鹏《经济日记》上）。

　　其实，就在人们都在感叹有心栽花花不活的时候，当时还没有意识到，多年来改革无意有意的插柳正在迅速成荫。

 中国十大经济学家排名

　　整理——沈剑锋

　　编者按：中国经济学界什么时候会出现诺贝尔经济学奖得主，也许从这里可以看出一些端倪！！！

　　每一个理性的不甘寂寞的经济学人，都想揭开了中国所谓的经济学家们集体裸奔的序幕。
　　
　　中国有讲真话的经济学家吗？看看中国的股市就知道了。有多少经济学人能够理性诠释得了，并说出了真话呢！顾准成了讲真话的最后祭品，那些为政府摇旗呐喊的“大家们”还有什么资格指点江山？

　　中国所谓的主流经济学界，Q版皇帝的新装开始了！


　　张五常(Steven N.S. Cheung)

　　华尔街电讯评测：学术影响力★★★★★ 经济影响力★★★★ 社会影响力★★★★

　　张五常教授1935年生于香港，1959年到洛杉矶加州大学经济系跟从现代产权经济学创始人阿尔奇安学习，1963年―1967年攻读博士学位，1967年到芝加哥大学跟从科斯做博士后研究，1969年为西雅图华盛顿大学教授，1982年起担任香港大学经济金融学院教授。张五常教授的理论主张往往在学术界引起广泛争议。主要著作有《佃农理论》（英文1969）、《社会成本的神话》（英文1978）、《中国会走向‘资本主义’的道路吗？》（英文1982）、《卖橘者言》（1984）等等。一方面，张五常教授在理论上下过苦功，“由浅入深、由深转复杂，再由复杂转深、再转浅，来来回回好几次”，已把价格理论咀嚼透烂。另一方面，张五常注重案例研究，大量时间用于现实问题的实践调查，多年砺炼，使他的学术素养和对现实问题的把握浑然一体。

　　钱颖一(Yingyi Qian)

　　华尔街电讯评测：学术影响力★★★★★ 经济影响力★★★★ 社会影响力★★★☆

　　钱颖一教授在《美国经济评论》(American Economic Review)上发表4篇论文，仅仅2006年，钱教授就有3篇学术文章发表，说明钱教授始终站在学术研究的前沿。钱颖一教授在清华大学数学专业本科毕业(1981年)，先后获得美国哥伦比亚大学统计学硕士(1982年)、耶鲁大学运筹和管理科学硕士(1984年)、哈佛大学经济学博士(1990年)。现任清华大学经济管理学院第一副院长, 任教于美国加州大学伯克利分校，曾任教于美国斯坦福大学和马里兰大学。主要研究和教学领域：组织和制度经济学、转轨经济学、中国的改革和发展。对于中国未来所面临的经济改革中出现的重多机遇与挑战，钱教授反对单一渐近式说法, 坚持渐进与激进并行的观点。

　　郎咸平（HP Lang, Larry）

　　华尔街电讯评测：学术影响力★★★★☆ 经济影响力★★★★★ 社会影响力★★★★★

　　郎咸平在国内的知名度极高，堪称

　　 林毅夫

　　华尔街电讯评测：学术影响力★★★★★ 经济影响力★★★★ 社会影响力★★☆

　　林毅夫教授是中国大陆改革开放以后第一位从西方学成归国的经济学博士，是中国大陆第一位运用规范的现代经济学理论和方法研究中国问题的学者，也是国际经济学界公认的研究中国问题的权威学者之一。林教授是1979年度诺贝尔经济学奖得主西奥多?W?舒尔茨教授的关门弟子。是改革开放以后第一位在权威的经济学杂志《美国经济评论》和《政治经济学杂志》发表论文的中国大陆经济学家，也是到目前为止在国外经济学期刊中发表论文最多的一位。他一直主张市场取向的改革，认为只有实行市场经济，理顺市场价格体系，形成比较充分的市场竞争环境和信息指标体系，才能为国有企业改革创造良好的外部条件。

　　邹恒甫（Zou Heng fu）

　　华尔街电讯评测：学术影响力★★★★★ 经济影响力★★社会影响力★(???)

　　邹恒甫教授说过喜欢做两件事：一是教书，和学生在一起；第二就是很痛快地读书，主要是历史和哲学。1962年，邹恒甫出生于湖南。1977年进武汉大学。1983年到哈佛经济学系攻读博士，堪称中国新一代经济学人中的元老。1992年，邹恒甫博士一手创办了武汉大学高级经济研究中心，开办了国际数理金融和数理经济系两个班，开始了中国经济学教育改革试验。这两个班采用英文原版教材，教学与国际惯例接轨。中心向全球一流大学经济系输出很多中国经济学博士生，邹教授的行动赢得了经济学同行之间的佩服和尊重。邹恒甫对于教育所做的贡献，首先不愧于他作为一个学者的本职。他创办了我国第一本经济学英文期刊《经济学与金融年刊》，该刊成为国际经济学主流刊物之一。他在国际学术刊物上发表了近六十篇学术论文。他是华人中最著名的宏观经济学家之一。他基本上不为社会所知，所以，他的社会影响力为一星，真可谓最低调的经济学大师。

　　 吴敬琏（Wu Jing Lian）

　　华尔街电讯评测：学术影响力★★★☆ 经济影响力★★★★★ 社会影响力★★★★★

　　吴敬琏教授给人感觉是一位公正、睿智、博学、为民请命的有良心的经济学家。他的主要欢迎人群平均分布在男女老少之中。让人“虽不能至，心向往之”。他是一个睿智和良知兼备的中国学者，他也体现了中国知识分子‘先天下之忧而忧’的高贵品格。但也有人把近几年中国股市的不景气部分归罪于他。由于历史等多种原因，吴敬琏教授并没有取得经济学博士学位，但是他仍然是当代中国最有影响的经济学家之一，对中国经济学的理论发展和经济与社会政策制定作出了多方面的贡献。他在20世纪80年代中期提出适时转变到整体改革战略，规划国有经济布局调整和国有企业改革的基本路径，论证发展民营经济、实现多种所有制经济共同发展的必要性。

　　张维迎(Zhang Wei Ying)

　　华尔街电讯评测：学术影响力★★ 经济影响力★★★★ 社会影响力★★★

　　北京大学光华管理学院的张维迎教授可能是挨骂最多的经济学家，什么“资本家的乏走狗”，什么“屁股决定脑袋”，一时间学术争论和人身攻击的界限被彻底地模糊了，但是那些骂张维迎教授的人，至少有90%没有完整地读过张维迎的一篇文章。从1984年至今的20多年里，张教授张从事产权和企业理论的研究是一贯的，长期的。张教授还应该算作是将“博弈论”（Game Theory）引入中国的开山之人，做了大量有关博弈论“传道授业”的工作。随着海龟进入中国学术界，他的学术影响力越来越小。

　　李稻葵(Li, David D)

　　华尔街电讯评测：学术影响力★★★★ 经济影响力★★☆ 社会影响力★★

　　除了经济学业内人士, 知道李稻葵教授的人很少。“一个经济学者在公众空间，要以一种理性的形象出现，要用理性的话语讨论问题，这是一个严肃经济学者的风范。”李教授发表评论的同时也定义了自己。李教授1985年毕业于清华大学经济管理学院管理信息系统专业，获学士学位，1992年获哈佛大学哲学博士(经济学)学位。先后担任安娜堡密西根大学经济系助理教授、斯坦福大学胡佛研究所国家研究员、香港科技大学经济系副教授。现任清华大学经济管理学院教授、中国与世界经济研究中心主任。

　　陈志武（Chen Zhi Wu）

　　华尔街电讯评测：学术影响力★★★★ 经济影响力★★ 社会影响力★★

　　 陈志武教授是耶鲁大学金融经济学终身教授、北京大学光华管理学院特聘教授，耶鲁大学金融学博士，华尔街对冲基金公司的首席投资经理，金融学和金融资产定价领域最具有创造力和最活跃的学者之一，获得过美国默顿.米勒（诺贝尔经济学奖得主）研究奖、芝加哥期权交易所研究奖等多项重大奖励。陈教授是金融经济学、财务学理论、证券定价、新兴资本市场方面的专家。最近几年，陈教授的研究主要集中在中国转型过程中的市场发展和制度机制建立的问题。“什么制度机制对市场经济的发展是必要的”？“金融创新在经济发展过程中扮演什么角色”？这些都是陈博士研究关注的问题。

　　田国强（Tian Guo Qiang）

　　华尔街电讯评测：学术影响力★★★★ 经济影响力★★ 社会影响力★

　　田国强教授无论是在国际经济学界还是在中国经济学界均名声远扬。然而，作为中国改革开放后早期赴美留学的孜孜学子，田国强的求学道路异常坎坷。田教授1980年毕业于原华中理工大学数学系，1982年获得该校数学硕士学位， 1987年获得美国明尼苏达州立大学经济学博士学位，博士论文获得全美斯隆博士论文奖。他提出了一个在“非规范性”的经济环境中，即有限经济自由和不完全市场体系环境下的企业产权理论。该理论认为，只有经济制度环境得到适当的改变，社会才能有效地变换产权的所有制安排形式。田教授为德州A&M大学经济系终身教授、上海财经大学经济学院院长、清华大学特聘教授。

　　

　　Stephen Turnovsky

　　Castor Professor

　　Areas of Interest: Macroeconomics, International Economics

　　Email: sturn@u.washington.edu

　　Office: Condon 534

　　Phone: (206) 685-8028

　　Office Hours: M W 11-12 AM

　　Curriculum Vitae
　　Professor Turnovsky is the Castor Professor of Economics. He received his Ph.D. from Harvard University in 1968. He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society, and is a former Editor of the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, although he remains on the Journal's Advisory Board. Currently he serves as an Associate Editor of the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Macroeconomic Dynamics, the Journal of Public Economic Theory, Economics Bulletin, and the Journal of Human Capital, as well as being on the editorial board of the Review of International Economics. He is the past President of the Society for Computational Economics.


　　Courses Taught

　　Econ 401 - Advanced Topics in Macroeconomics

　　 | Autumn 2008 |

　　Econ 503 - Macroeconomic Analysis II

　　 | Winter 2009 | Winter 2008 |

　　Econ 512 - Advanced Macroeconomic Theory: Selected Topics

　　 | Autumn 2005 |

　　Econ 574 - International Macroeconomics

　　 | Autumn 2007 | Winter 2007 |

　　Econ 594 - Economic Growth

　　 | Autumn 2008 | Winter 2008 |

　　Books

　　Methods of Macroeconomc Dynamics (2nd Ed), Stephen Turnovsky. MIT Press, 2000

　　International Macroeconomic Dynamics, Stephen Turnovsky. MIT Press, 1997

　　Inequality and Growth: Theory and Policy Implications, Theo Eicher and Stephen Turnovsky (eds.). MIT Press

　　2003

　　Advances in Economic Theory and Econometrics, M. Dewatripont, L.P. Hansen and S.J. Turnovsky (eds.). Cambridge University Press

　　2003

　　Economic Growth and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Some Recent Developments, Stephen Dowrick, Rohan Pitchford, and Stephen Turnovsky (eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2004

　　Working Papers

　　UWEC-2005-12 - " Variable Retirement and the Effects of Social Insurance on Savings, Wealth and Welfare ," Neil Bruce; Stephen Turnovsky. (PDF)

　　UWEC-2008-13 - " Stabilization Theory and Policy: 50 Years after the Phillips Curve ," Stephen J. Turnovsky. (PDF)

　　UWEC-2007-01 - " Economic Growth, Trade, and Environmental Quality in a Two-region World Economy ," Sibel Sirakaya; Stephen Turnovsky; Nedim Alemdar. (PDF)

　　(PDF) = PDF File which requires Adobe Acrobat Reader

　　Published Papers

　　UWEC-2007-21-FC - " Intergenerational Allocation of Government Expenditures: Externalities and Optimal Taxation ," Kazi Iqbal, World Bank; Stephen Turnovsky, University of Washington; Forthcoming in Journal of Public Economic Theory, . (PDF)

　　UWEC-2006-26-FC - " Consumption Externalities, Production Externalities, and Efficient Capital Accumulation under Time Non-Separable Preferences ," Stephen Turnovsky; Goncalo Monteiro; Forthcoming in European Economic Review, forthcoming. (PDF)

　　UWEC-2004-07-FC - " Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: The Role of flexible Labor Supply ," Santanu Chatterjee; Stephen Turnovsky; Forthcoming in Journal of Development Economics, . (PDF)

　　UWEC-2006-03-P - " Feedback Approximation of the Stochastic Growth Model by Genetic Neural Networks ," Sibel Sirakaya; Stephen Turnovsky; N.M. Alemdar; Computational Economics, 27, 2006, 185-206. (PDF)

　　UWEC-2006-02-P - " Excludable and Non-excludable Public Inputs: Consequences for Economic Growth ," Ott Ingrid; Stephen Turnovsky; Economica, 73, 2006, 725-748. (PDF)

　　UWEC-2006-04-P - " Growth and Income Inequality: A Canonical Model ," Cecilia Garcia-Penalosa; Stephen Turnovsky; Economic Theory, 28, 2006, 25-49. (PDF)

　　UWEC-2006-01-P - " Equilibrium Consumption and Precautionary Savings in a Stochastically Growing Economy ," Stephen Turnovsky; William Smith; Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 30, 2006, 243-278. (PDF)

　　UWEC-2004-05-P - " Second-Best Optimal Taxation of Capital and Labor in a Developing Economy ," Cecilia Garcia-Penalosa; Stephen Turnovsky; Journal of Public Economics, 89,205,1045-1074. (PDF)

　　UWEC-2004-09-P - " Habit Formation, Catching Up with the Joneses, and Economic Growth ," Francisco Alvarez-Cuadrado; Goncalo Monteiro; Stephen Turnovsky; Journal of Economic Growth, 9, 2004, 47-80. (PDF)

　　UWEC-2002-13-P - " Consumption Externalities, Production Externalities, and the Accumulation of Capital ," Wen-Fang Liu; Stephen Turnovsky; Journal of Public Economics, 89, 2005, 1097-1129. (PDF)

　　UWEC-2002-14-P - " Renewable Resources in an Endogenously Growing Economy ," Ludvik Eliasson; Stephen Turnovsky; Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 48, 2004, 1018-1049. (PDF)

　　UWEC-2002-07-P - " Production Risk and the Functional Distribution of Income in a Developing Economy: Tradeoffs and Policy Responses ," Cecilia Garcia-Penalosa; Stephen Turnovsky; Journal of Development Economics, 76, 2005, ,175-208. (PDF)

　　UWEC-2004-06-P - " Macroeconomic Volatility and Income Inequality in a Stochastically Growing Economy ," Cecilia Garcia-Penalosa; Stephen Turnovsky; N. Salvadori (ed.) Economic Growth and Income Distribution, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2006, 179-221. (PDF)

　　" Capital Income Taxes and Growth in a Stochastic Economy: A Numerical Analysis of the Role of Risk Aversaion and Intertemporal Substitution ," Santanu Chatterjee; Paola Giuliano; Stephen Turnovsky; Journal of Public Economic Theory, 6, 2004, 277-310. (PDF)

　　UWEC-2002-17-P - " Sectoral Adjustment Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Two-Sector Dependent Economy ," A.K.M. Mahbub Morshed; Stephen Turnovsky; Journal of International Economics , 62, 2004, 147-177. (PDF)

　　UWEC-2002-22-P - " The Transitional Dynamics of Fiscal Policy: Long-run Capital Accumulation and Growth ," Stephen Turnovsky; Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 36, 2004, 883-910. (PDF)

　　UWEC-2002-08-P - " Substitutability of Capital, Investment Costs, and Foreign Aid ," Santanu Chatterjee; Stephen Turnovsky; Econ.Growth. and Macro Dyn. Dowrick et al. eds, CUP. (PDF)

　　UWEC-2002-20-P - " Intertemporal Substitution, Risk Aversion, and Economic Performance in a Stochastically Growing Open Economy ," Paola Giuliano; Stephen Turnovsky; Journal of International Money and Finance, 22, 2003, 529-556. (PDF)

　　UWEC-2002-19-P - " To Spend the US Government Surplus or to Increase the Deficit? A Numerical Analysis of the Policy Options ," Stephen Turnovsky; Santanu Chatterjee; Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Vol 16, 405-435. (PDF)

　　" Capital Income Taxes and Growth in a Stochastic Economy: A Numerical Analysis of the Role of Risk Aversion and Intertemporal Substitution ," Santanu Chatterjee; Paola Giuliano; Stephen Turnovsky; Forthcoming in Journal of Public Economic Theory.

　　" Growth in an Open Economy: Some Recent Developments ," Stephen Turnovsky; How to Promote Growth in the Euro Area, J. Smets and M. Dombrecht eds., E. Elgar, 2002. (PDF)

　　" Knife-Edge Conditions and the Macroeconomics of Small Open Economies ," Stephen Turnovsky; Macroeconomic Dynamics, 6, 2002, 307-335. (PDF)

　　" Budget Balance, Welfare and the Growth Rate: 'Dynamic Scoring' of the Long-run Government Balance ," Neil Bruce; Stephen Turnovsky; Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, May 1999..

　　" Reserve Requirements on Sovereign Debt in the Presence of Moral Hazard -- on Debtors or Creditors? ," Joshua Aizenman; Stephen Turnovsky; Economic Journal, 112, 2002, 107-132. (PDF)

　　" Fiscal Policy and Growth in a Small Open Economy with Elastic Labor Supply ," Stephen Turnovsky; Canadian Journal of Economics, 32, 1999, 1191-1213. (PDF)

　　" International Capital Markets and Non-Scale Growth ," Theo Eicher; Stephen Turnovsky; Review of International Economics, 7, 1999, 171-188 . (PDF)

　　" Volatility and Growth in Developing Economies: Some Numerical Results and Empirical Evidence ," Stephen Turnovsky; Pradip Chattopadhyay; Journal of International Economics, 59, 2003, 267-295. (PDF)

　　" Productive Government Expenditure in a Stochastically Growing Economy ," Stephen Turnovsky; Macroeconomic Dynamics, 3, 1999, 544-570. (PDF)

　　" Fiscal Policy, Elastic Labor Supply, and Endogenous Growth ," Stephen Turnovsky; Journal of Monetary Economics, 45, 2000, 185-210. (PDF)

　　" Budget Balance, Welfare, and the Growth Rate: 'Dynamic Scoring' of the Long-Run Government Budget ," Neil Bruce; Stephen Turnovsky; Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 31, 1999, 162-186. (PDF)

　　" Scale, Congestion, and Growth ," Theo Eicher; Stephen Turnovsky; Economica, 67, 2000, 325-346. (PDF)

　　" On the Role of Government in a Stochastically Growing Open Economy ," Stephen Turnovsky; Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 23, 1999, 873-908. (PDF)

　　" Adjustment Costs and Investment in a Stochastic Equilibrium Macromodel , " Arthur, Benavie; Earl Grinols; Stephen Turnovsky; Journal of Monetary Economics, 38, 1996, 77-100.

　　" Capital Income Taxation and Risk-Taking in a Small Open Economy , " Stephen Turnovsky; Patrick Asea; Journal; of Public Economics, 68, 1998, 55-90.

　　" The Composition of Government Expenditure and its Consequences for Macroeconomic Performance , " Stephen Turnovsky; Walter Fisher; Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19, 1995, 747-786.

　　" Investment in a Two-Sector Dependent Economy , " Stephen Turnovsky; Partha Sen; Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 9, 1995, 29-55.

　　" Fiscal Policy, Growth, and Macroeconomic Performance in a Small Open Economy , " Stephen Turnovsky; Journal of International Economics, 40, 1996, 41-66.

　　UWEC-2004-08-P - " The Welfare Gains from Stabilization in a Stochastically Growing Economy with Idiosyncratic Shocks and Flexible Labor Supply ," Stephen Turnovsky; Marcelo Bianconi; Macroeconomic Dynamics, 9, 2005, 321-357 . (PDF)

　　" Optimal Government Finance Policy and Exchange Rate Management in a Stochastically Growing Open Economy , " Stephen Turnovsky; Earl Grinols; Journal of International Money and Finance, 15, 1996, 687-716.

　　" Trends and Fads in Macroeconomic Dynamics , " Stephen Turnovsky; Indian Economic Review, 31, 1996, 23-40.

　　" Fiscal Policy, Adjustment Costs, and Endogenous Growth , " Stephen Turnovsky; Oxford Economic Papers, 47, 1996, 361-381.

　　" International Effects of Government Expenditure in Interdependent Economies , " Marcelo Bianconi; Stephen Turnovsky; Canadian Journal of Economics, 30, 1997, 57-84.

　　" Fiscal Policy in a Growing Economy with Public Capital , " Stephen Turnovsky; Macroeconomic Dynamics, 1, 1997, 615-639.

　　" Risk, Optimal Government Finance, and Monetary Policies in a Growing Economy , " Earl Grinols; Stephen Turnovsky; Economica, 65, 1998, 401-427.

　　" The Composition of Government Debt and Real Effects in a Stochastically Growing Economy , " Earl Grinols; Stephen Turnovsky; International Economic Review, 38, 1998, 495-521.

　　" Public Investment, Congestion, and Private Capital Accumulation , " Walter Fisher; Stephen Turnovsky; Economic Journal, 108, 1998, 399-413.

　　UWEC-2006-27-FC - " Growth, Income Inequality, and Fiscal Policy: What are the Relevant Tradeoffs? ," Cecilia Garcia-Penalosa; Stephen Turnovsky; Forthcoming in Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. (PDF)

　　" Optimal Tax, Debt, and Expenditure Policies in a Growing Economy , " Stephen Turnovsky; Journal of Public Economics, 60, 1996, 21-44.

　　贪婪不再为华尔街吹捧，剥削是资本的本质。

　　Greed is no longer good on Wall Street

　　Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are unlikely to do away with the investment banking model. But they will probably become smaller, safer and less sexy.


　　AMERICA'S MONEY CRISIS
　　Bailout beneficiary takes over Florida bank

　　Bernanke discusses future of Fannie and Freddie

　　Greed is no longer good on Wall Street

　　Wall Street's red October

　　Wall Street's red October

　　

　　Tough times on Wall Street have forced both Morgan Stanley and rival Goldman Sachs to reevaluate the way they make a buck.

　　Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have suffered a crisis of confidence among investors since Labor Day.

　　The future for small banks
　　
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　　NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- These are certainly strange times for Wall Street. Government regulation threatens to give the industry a massive overhaul and job losses continue to mount.

　　Lehman Brothers seemed invulnerable just a year ago before vanishing virtually overnight last month. Merrill Lynch (MER, Fortune 500) leapt into bed with Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) in order to live another day.

　　And two survivors of the turmoil -- Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) -- converted into bank holding companies last month in order to allay funding fears.

　　That's right. These blue-blood investment banks are now relying on the pedestrian business of attracting deposits to raise cash.

　　But can you blame them? Much of the business that came to define these two Wall Street fixtures has dried up in recent months. Not a single U.S. company has gone public since mid-August and other than a flurry of deals in the financial services sector, merger activity has been moving at a snail's pace.

　　Investors have certainly recognized this -- shares of Goldman and Morgan have fallen 44% and 61% respectively just since Labor Day.

　　"People's concerns are still focused on the business model," said Mark Lane, equity research analyst for William Blair & Co.

　　A whole new look?

　　The recent conversion by Goldman and Morgan to bank holding companies suggests that both firms will make the transition to some sort-of financial services "supermarket" model like Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500).

　　Just this week, Morgan Stanley revealed that such plans were well underway, as it had raised $3 billion in certificates of deposit (CDs) in the last four weeks. The New York City-based firm added that it would market other savings account products to its financial advisory clients next year.

　　Goldman Sachs appears to not have enacted similar measures, although that could happen soon enough.

　　There has also been speculation that either firm could soon scoop up one of the growing number of troubled traditional banks.

　　Both companies certainly have the financial wherewithal to do so.

　　Earlier this month, Japanese financial firm Mitsubishi UFJ finalized a deal to take a 21% stake in Morgan Stanley for $9 billion. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway announced last month it was investing $5 billion in Goldman Sachs.

　　And the government injected $10 billion into each company earlier this month as part of its broader rescue package.

　　Purchasing a bank would help put to rest some concerns surrounding Goldman and Morgan about funding. Unlike traditional commercial banks which rely on deposits, securities firms depend on short-term funding sources, which essentially stopped flowing after Lehman collapsed in September.

　　But industry experts have largely downplayed the idea that American consumers will soon be writing checks emblazoned with a Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley logo. For one thing, Goldman and Morgan would have a difficult time absorbing a branch network.

　　"There's not a lot of benefit," said Richard Staite, a London-based banking analyst with Atlantic Equities who tracks Goldman Sachs. "You would end up with two very separate businesses."

　　There have also been rumors, however, that Goldman or Morgan could merge with Citigroup. And there has even been chatter about a marriage between Goldman and Morgan.

　　But given all the steps the government has taken since then to keep both firms alive, a combination of the two seems pretty unlikely, according to industry trackers.

　　End of an era?

　　Still, analysts are cautious about the prospects for both firms in the next few months as well as the long-term.

　　Goldman and Morgan are expected to remain profitable in the coming quarters. But neither firm is likely to deliver the same record-setting numbers they did in recent years at least through 2010, according to analysts' estimates.

　　Both companies should enjoy a flood of new business once capital markets activity picks back up again. But the risk of additional writedowns in the next quarter and in early 2009 remains.

　　For this reason, the firms are probably going to emphasize some of their more stable, albeit less exciting, businesses.

　　David Killian, portfolio manager at Valley Forge Advisors in Malvern, Penn., which oversees about $600 million in assets and owns shares of Morgan and Goldman, expects both firms to look to businesses outside of investment banking or sales and trading to pick up the slack.

　　That includes asset management, which is highly profitable and doesn't require a lot of capital. But it may not yield the type of eye-popping returns that investors grew used to seeing from the two firms.

　　"They are going to have to run their business with an eye towards generating the types of profits their shareholders have become accustomed to with lower levels of risk and leverage," said Killian. "That is quite a challenge."

　　
　　
　　
　　
　　
　　
　　

　　股市和楼市都迷失了方向好！

　　本来都是投机的玩意，本来就是随机游走，本来就应该只有一个由经济基础决定的大方向。

　　大家正好回家搞农林牧副渔，搞工业科技制造服务等真行当。这才是真生活。